Western Hemisphere > Aruba

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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba’s economic recovery continues, although at a slowing pace. The authorities have managed well the impact of the crisis in Venezuela through diversification of product markets and tourism sources. Nonetheless, a deepening of the crisis is a downside risk—mainly through a potentially sizable influx of immigrants and refugees. It is recommended to identify additional reform measures to achieve Aruba’s fiscal targets. These measures should involve a mix of revenue increases and expenditure restraint, and be prioritized, sequenced, equitable, and well-communicated to minimize implementation risks and ensure the measures’ durability. The government devised a reform agenda with fiscal consolidation as a key pillar. Additional measures are needed to achieve the authorities’ fiscal targets. The additional adjustment should contain a mix of tax reforms and expenditure rationalization. The fiscal measures in 2019 are expected to deliver a large upfront increase in revenues but it will be important to strike a balance between revenue increases and expenditure restraint in subsequent years.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ economic recovery from the global economic crisis has been curbed by a series of significant natural disasters. These, combined with the economic downturn following the global financial crisis, have prevented the economy from returning to its long-term potential real GDP growth. The overall fiscal balance is estimated to have narrowed to 4.75 percent of GDP in 2014. After an estimated 1.1 percent growth rate in 2014, growth is projected to pick up modestly to 2.1 percent in 2015 on improvements in tourism and agriculture and enhanced implementation of much-needed rehabilitation and reconstruction projects.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba has been recovering from a severe double-dip recession. The economy faced two major shocks over the past five years—the global financial crisis and shutdown of the Valero oil refinery in 2012. After a strong recovery in 2013 with growth reaching 4.75 percent, the pace of activity moderated in 2014. In 2015, growth is projected to rise to 2.25 percent. The tourism sector—the mainstay of the Aruban economy—is envisaged to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Moreover, domestic demand is slated to recover notably amid subsiding policy uncertainty and as key public-private partnership projects move forward.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic output in Aruba remains 12 percent below its pre-crisis level, with recovery slower than others in the Caribbean region. The non-oil current account (CA) balance, which mostly reflects developments in the tourism sector, has improved since mid-2000 reaching a balanced position in 2012. The overall CA balance, however, after being in surplus for years, showed volatilities in recent years reflecting oil-sector developments. In 2012, it recorded a surplus of 5 percent of GDP. In 2013, real output is projected to grow by 1¼ percent. Robust tourism growth and some pickup in consumption from projected deflation will support the subdued near-term recovery.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns requires identifying the underlying factors. This paper presents an overview of Aruba’s economic growth performance since 1990, analyzes factors behind the slowdown, and discusses how potential growth can be sustained. It suggests that Aruba should aim to finance its renewable energy and other future growth initiatives sustainably.
International Monetary Fund
The Netherlands has a long-standing legal framework concerning Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism preventive measures, which dates back to 1993. The legal framework for Customer Due Diligence is generally adequate; however, a number of provisions are problematic. The Dutch system of preventive measures emphasizes the risk-based approach, complemented by a principles-based approach. The principles-based approach should be better supported with guidance for financial institutions. Although most elements of the Suspicious Transaction Report reporting requirements are in place, the reporting regime has one minor legal shortcoming and raises effectiveness concerns.
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation for the Netherlands Antilles’ reports that economic growth has been feeble so far in this decade, in the midst of economic policy drift. Growth has been constrained by still inflexible labor markets, widespread state ownership and interference in commercial activities, and insufficient investment in infrastructure and human capital. At the same time, free migration to the Netherlands has kept wages high. Persistent budget deficits and a large and growing public debt have also remained unaddressed.
International Monetary Fund
This 2003 Article IV Consultation highlights that after a prolonged recession through the second half of the 1990s, the Netherlands Antilles economy has recently shown some important resilience. With the exchange rate pegged to the U.S. dollar, the Netherlands Antilles has enjoyed low inflation. With waning cost-push pressures related to higher energy costs and indirect tax increases, inflation has moderated to 0.5 percent in 2002. For 2003, inflation is projected to reach 2 percent in line with developments projected for the United States.
International Monetary Fund
The government’s plans to reform the tax system and administration are well founded. The Central Bank of Aruba is to be commended for its prudent management of monetary policy, as demonstrated by the continued credibility and strength of the peg to the U.S. dollar, buttressed by a robust foreign reserve position. There has been significant progress in expanding and strengthening the supervisory and regulatory framework of financial activities. Renewed initiatives on structural reforms will improve efficiency in the use of resources and attract strategic investment.
International Monetary Fund
The statistical data on indicators of tourism activity, estimated GDP and components, real GDP, contributions to real GDP growth, changes in the consumer price index, legal minimum wages, summary of trends in public finance, and tax revenue of Aruba are presented in the paper. The data on operational budget of the social insurance bank, government debt, balance- of-payments summary, monetary survey, monetary developments, and changes in sources of broad money with respect to Aruba are also presented.