The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pick up, though at a slower pace than previously expected. This revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and a weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. The challenge for the region is to boost growth to create jobs for the growing labor force, while protecting against debt vulnerabilities and risks from a difficult global environment.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Eighth and Final Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Extension of the Current Arrangement. Guinea’s medium-term economic prospects are good. Growth is projected to average 5 percent during 2017–20, on the back of higher investments in the mining sector, increases in food production, and better electricity services. The recovery in the agricultural sector will allow the growth rebound to be shared by larger segments of the population, but the sector remains vulnerable to weather-related supply shocks. The IMF staff supports the completion of the eighth review under the ECF arrangement and financing assurances review.
This Selected Issues paper assesses macroeconomic fiscal risks and the benefits of improved fiscal risk management in Angola. Angola faces fiscal risks coming from multiple sources, such as volatility in oil prices and production, macroeconomic shocks, weak macroeconomic forecasting; weaknesses in public fiscal management, energy subsidies, potential delays of oil revenue transfers from the state-owned oil company Sonangol to the Treasury, and contingent liabilities from state-owned banks and enterprises. Addressing these risks requires action in various fronts, including more transparent fiscal reporting, improved forecasting of fiscal aggregates and other macroeconomic variables, developing a fiscal stabilization fund with more flexible deposit and withdrawal rules, strengthened public expenditure controls, and more timely oil revenue transfers from Sonangol to the Treasury.
This handbook is one of the first of its kind to focus attention on effectively administering revenues from extractive industries. It provides policymakers and officials in developing and emerging market economies with practical guidelines to establish a robust legal framework, organization, and procedures for administering revenue from these industries. It discusses transparency and how to promote it in the face of increasing demands for clarity and how developing countries can strengthen their managerial and technical capacity to administer these revenues.
Many developing countries have significant natural resource endowments, presenting a remarkable opportunity to boost long-term growth. However, this opportunity comes with enormous challenges. To maximize social and economic benefits, strong governance and institutional capacity are essential. Effective and transparent tax administration is crucial for properly managing revenues from natural resources so the country may benefit economically and socially from its natural resources. Revenue Administration describes the challenges that developing countries face and presents good practices to help build countries’ long-term institutional capacity.
This paper focuses on Central African Republic’s (CAR) Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Cancellation of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The transitional government in CAR is facing daunting challenges. Improved security, donor support, and normalizing salary payments will be crucial to start a recovery in 2014. The macroeconomic outlook is subject to uncertainty and risks. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the RCF in view of their currently limited capacity to implement policies of an upper credit tranche-quality economic program, the large and urgent balance-of-payments needs, and the catalytic effect of IMF support on other external assistance.
This paper reviews Angola’s Second Post-Program Monitoring for different economic developments and policies. The IMF report highlights that Angola has returned to a path of solid economic growth, with single-digit inflation, a strong international reserves position, and a stable exchange rate. Growth has slowed to 4 percent in 2013, but is expected to increase to 5 percent in 2014 as oil production recovers. It outlines that Angola’s capacity to repay the fund remains strong, but the macroeconomic framework and institutional setting should be strengthened to facilitate the process of rebuilding external and fiscal buffers.
Guinea is making good progress in recovering from a long period of social unrest and military rule. Macroeconomic imbalances have been reduced, major structural reforms are under way, and long-neglected infrastructure is being rebuilt. However, the political transition process is still incomplete, with parliamentary elections having been delayed, and social tensions persist. Guinea remains vulnerable to developments in international markets, but risks are mitigated by long-term mining contracts; the key food import is rice, where recent international price increases have been modest and where agricultural reforms seek to boost domestic production.