Mr. Tidiane Kinda, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, and Rasmané Ouedraogo
This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.
Only a minority of countries have succeeded in establishing a developed financial system, despite widespread financial liberalization. Confronted with this finding, the political institutions view claims that sustained financial deepening is most likely to take place in institutional environments where governments effectively impose constraints on their own powers in order to create trust. This paper identifies over 200 post-1960 episodes of accelerations in financial development in a large cross-section of countries. We find that the likelihood of an acceleration leading to sustained financial development increases greatly in environments that have high-quality political institutions.