International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
International Working Group on External Debt Statistics
This issue of Finance & Development examines the good and bad sides of globalization. Sebastian Mallaby notes that after decades of increasing cross-border movements of capital, goods, and people, only migration continues apace. Capital flows have collapsed, and trade has stagnated. However, rather than a sign of retreat, trade and finance may be resetting to a more sustainable level consistent with continued globalization. IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld takes a closer look at trade. Ismaila Dieng profiles Leonard Wantchekon, a former activist who plans to train the next generation of African economists. Wantchekon, now a professor at Princeton University, is one of the few African economists teaching at a top US university. His research, which has received considerable attention from development economists, focuses on the political and historical roots of economic development in Africa.