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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

La croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne est tombée en 2015 à son plus bas niveau depuis quinze ans, avec toutefois une grande disparité entre les pays de la région. La chute des cours des produits de base de ces dernières années a ébranlé beaucoup des plus grands pays d’Afrique subsaharienne, dont des pays exportateurs de pétrole tels que l'Angola et le Nigéria, et d'autres produits exportateurs de produits de base, tels que le Ghana, l'Afrique du Sud et la Zambie. La baisse des cours pétroliers a toutefois permis à d'autres pays de maintenir une croissance vigoureuse, dont le Kenya et le Sénégal. Dans de nombreux pays, il est urgent et essentiel de prendre des mesures robustes face aux chocs sur les termes de l'échange. Le rapport aborde également la vulnérabilité de l'Afrique subsaharienne face aux chocs sur les prix de base et note les avancées spectaculaires en matière de développement du secteur financier, et plus particulièrement dans le domaine des services financiers mobiles.

Mr. Ranil M Salgado

Abstract

Although Asia remains a growth leader in the global economy, growth is expected to ease slightly to 5.5 percent during 2016, with countries affected to varying degrees by a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition. Structural reforms are needed if Asia is to maintain its position in the global economy, including reforms aimed at enhancing productive capacity. Needed reforms range from state-owned enterprise and financial sector reform in China to labor and product market reforms in Japan and reforms to remove supply bottlenecks in India, ASEAN, frontier economies, and small states.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, though with large variation among countries in the region. The sharp decline in commodity prices has severely strained many of the largest economies, including oil exporters Angola and Nigeria, and other commodity exporters, such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has helped other countries continue to show robust growth, including Kenya and Senegal. A strong policy response to the terms-of-trade shocks is critical and urgent in many countries. This report also examines sub-Saharan Africa’s vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and documents the substantial progress made in financial develop, especially financial services based on mobile technologies.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Cette édition examine un certain nombre de facteurs qui influent sur la croissance mondiale et se penche sur les perspectives de croissance dans les principaux pays et régions du monde. Elle analyse la reprise en cours à la suite de la crise financière mondiale dans les pays avancés et émergents, et évalue les risques haussiers et baissiers, dont ceux qui ont trait aux cours des produits de base, aux fluctuations des taux de change et à la volatilité des marchés financiers. Un dossier spécial examine dans le détail les causes et conséquences de la récente chute des prix de base ; les chapitres analytiques s'intéressent aux effets sur la production de recettes exceptionnelles tirées des produits de base et aux retombées des fluctuations de change sur le commerce international.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En esta edición se aborda una serie de factores que afectan el crecimiento mundial, y se examinan las perspectivas de crecimiento en los diferentes países y regiones del mundo. Se estudia la recuperación que está en curso en las economías avanzadas y de mercados emergentes tras la crisis financiera mundial y se evalúan los riesgos, tanto al alza como a la baja, incluidos los relacionados con los precios de las materias primas, las fluctuaciones cambiarias y la volatilidad del mercado financiero. En una sección especial se examinan en detalle las causas e implicaciones de la reciente desaceleración de los precios de las materias primas; en los capítulos analíticos se estudian los efectos de los ingresos extraordinarios derivados de las materias primas en el producto potencial y de los movimientos de los tipos de cambio en el comercio.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.