Flagships > Regional Economic Outlook
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Abstract
The Asia-Pacific region continues to be the world leader in growth, and recent data point to a pickup in momentum. We expect the region to expand by 5.5 percent in 2017, up from 5.3 percent in 2016. Accommodative policies will underpin domestic demand, offsetting tighter global financial conditions. However, the risks to the outlook, on balance, are slanted to the downside. A possible shift toward protectionism in major trading partners could suppress Asiaβs trade, while the continued tightening of global financial conditions and economic uncertainty could trigger capital flow volatility. A bumpier-than-expected transition in China would also have large negative spillovers to the region. Beyond the short term, many parts of Asia face secular headwinds from population aging and slow productivity growth. These challenges call for domestic policies that support growth while boosting resilience and inclusiveness. To sustain long-term growth, structural reforms are needed to deal with challenges from demographic transition and to boost productivity.
Abstract
La situation Γ©conomique en Afrique subsaharienne est restΓ©e gΓ©nΓ©ralement robuste en dΓ©pit du marasme Γ©conomique mondial. Les perspectives Γ court terme de la rΓ©gion restent dans l'ensemble positives : une croissance annuelle de 5ΒΌ % est prΓ©vue pour 2012β13. La plupart des pays Γ faible revenu devraient continuer d'afficher une croissance vigoureuse, portΓ©e par la demande intΓ©rieure, y compris l'investissement. Les perspectives sont moins favorables pour beaucoup de pays Γ revenu intermΓ©diaire, en particulier l'Afrique du Sud, qui sont liΓ©s plus Γ©troitement aux marchΓ©s europΓ©ens et souffrent donc davantage de la conjoncture extΓ©rieure. Les principaux risques pesant sur les perspectives sont une intensification des tensions financiΓ¨res dans la zone euro et un ajustement budgΓ©taire brutal aux Γtats-Unis (Β« prΓ©cipice budgΓ©taire Β»).
Abstract
Economic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa have remained generally robust despite a sluggish global economy. The near-term outlook for the region remains broadly positive, and growth is projected at 5ΒΌ percent a year in 2012-13. Most low-income countries are projected to continue to grow strongly, supported by domestic demand, including from investment. The outlook is less favorable for many of the middle-income countries, especially South Africa, that are more closely linked to European markets and thus experience a more noticeable drag from the external environment. The main risks to the outlook are an intensification of financial stresses in the euro zone and a sharp fiscal adjustment in the US--the so-called fiscal cliff.