Archived Series > Occasional Papers

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Mr. Christian H. Beddies, Ms. Marie-Helene Le Manchec, and Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu

Abstract

Les pays à faible revenu continuent d'éprouver des difficultés considérables à satisfaire leurs importants besoins en développement tout en préservant la viabilité de leur dette, même après avoir bénéficié d'un important allégement de la dette pour nombre d'entre eux. Ces difficultés sont encore exacerbées par l'évolution du paysage financier, dont l'émergence de nouveaux créanciers et investisseurs, le recours à des instruments de financement complexes, et le développement des marchés intérieurs. Le cadre de viabilité de la dette, élaboré conjointement par la Banque mondiale et le FMI, est très utile pour aider à résoudre ces difficultés ainsi qu'à réduire les risques de réapparition d'épisodes de surendettement. Ce document présente les fondements théoriques du cadre et explique comment en tirer tout le parti.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The economic and financial crisis is affecting the fiscal accounts of virtually every country. Public sector support for the financial system, fiscal stimulus and the automatic stabilizers, as well as the revenue decline from the downturn in commodity and asset prices, are leading to sharp increases in deficits and debt stocks around the world. Expansionary fiscal policy continues to be necessary in the short term to stimulate economic recovery. But it is now essential that governments reassess the state of their public finances in light of the global crisis and adopt strategies that will ensure medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. Many of the advanced economies most affected by the crisis are also those where age-related spending will increase markedly in the coming years, adding particular urgency to the need to identify medium-term consolidation strategies. This new paper, which focuses mainly on advanced and emerging market economies, employs projections based on the April 2009 World Economic Outlook to quantify the fiscal implications of the crisis for a cross-section of countries. The authors assess the post-shock fiscal balances and debt outlook, and suggest ways for governments to clarify their strategies for maintaining fiscal solvency.

Mr. Christian H. Beddies, Ms. Marie-Helene Le Manchec, and Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu

Abstract

Low-income countries continue to face significant challenges in meeting their vast development needs while maintaining a sustainable debt position, even after many of these countries have benefited from substantial debt relief. These challenges are further exacerbated by changes in the financial landscape, including the emergence of new creditors and investors, the use of more complex financing vehicles, and the development of domestic markets. The joint World Bank/IMF debt sustainability framework is well placed to help address these challenges and reduce the risks of renewed episodes of debt distress. This paper explains the analytical underpinnings of the framework and the means to ensure its full effectiveness.

Mr. Alfred Schipke and Mr. Dominique Desruelle

Abstract

¿Cómo consolidar los avances logrados con tanto esfuerzo, acrecentar la capacidad de resistencia a los shocks y alcanzar un mayor crecimiento económico a fin de reducir la pobreza? Estos son los desafíos que se le presentan en el camino a América Central en el proceso de recuperación de la estabilidad macroeconómica. Este estudio analiza las políticas de América Central en los sectores real, fiscal, monetario y financiero a nivel regional, comenzando por un análisis del crecimiento y de las implicaciones macroeconómicas de las remesas. Seguidamente se abordan la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de pensiones, el desarrollo del sistema financiero, las vulnerabilidades de la deuda soberana y las formas de apoyar el avance en la reducción de la inflación fortaleciendo la credibilidad de los bancos centrales.

Mr. Alfred Schipke and Mr. Dominique Desruelle

Abstract

How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America’s real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.

Mr. Harald Finger and Mr. Mauro Mecagni

Abstract

Restoring a country's debt to a sustainable path after a sovereign debt restructuring is key to ensuring a credible and durable exit from the crisis. In recent years, a number of countries have restructured their sovereign liabilities, either following a default, or preemptively, to avoid a default. This Occasional Paper takes stock of the experiences of some of these countries--Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Moldova, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uruguay--with debt-restructuring operations, with a view to assessing the outcomes and whether debt sustainability has been restored. The emphasis of the study is on sovereign debt owed to private creditors.

Mr. Jan Kees Martijn, Gabriel Di Bella, Mr. Shamsuddin Tareq, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Abebe Aemro Selassie

Abstract

Macroeconomic outcomes in low-income countries (LICs) have improved markedly in recent years, but important questions remain regarding possible adjustments in the design of IMF-supported programs in such countries. This paper draws on a review of the literature as well as the experience of 15 LICs that have attained some degree of macroeconomic stability to discuss, for example, the appropriate target range for inflation in shock-prone LICs; whether countries should use fiscal space to cut excessive tax burdens, reduce high debt levels, or raise public spending; and how the effectiveness of public expenditures can be improved.

Mr. Mark A Horton, Mr. George C. Tsibouris, Wojciech Maliszewski, and Mr. Mark J Flanagan

Abstract

When policymakers have little option but to consider a sizable fiscal adjustment, they are confronted by the following questions: Can a large fiscal adjustment be implemented succesfully? How is a large adjustment best designed and implemented? What will be its impact on the economy? This Occasional Paper addresses these questions by describing the experience of countries that have undertaken large fiscal adjustments in the last three decades. It provides operational guidance to policymakers by identifying preconditions, common policy approaches, and institutional arrangements underlying successful and unsuccessful adjustment episodes.

Mr. Brad Setser, Mr. Ioannis Halikias, Mr. Alexander Pitt, Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, Mr. Brett E. House, Mr. Jens Nystedt, and Mr. Christian Keller

Abstract

The analysis of currency and maturity mismatches in sectoral balance sheets has increasingly become a regular element in the IMF’s tool kit for surveillance in emerging market countries. This paper describes this so-called balance sheet approach and shows how it can be applied to detect vulnerabilities and shape policy advice. It also provides a broad-brushed overview of how balance sheet vulnerabilities have evolved over the past decade and cites a number of case studies.

Mr. Donal McGettigan, Mr. Xavier Debrun, Mr. Mark E Griffiths, Mr. Reza Moghadam, Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, Mr. Martin Schindler, Mr. Mats A Josefsson, Cheng Hoon Lim, Mr. Christian Keller, Mr. Christoph A Klingen, Mr. Chris Lane, Oya Celasun, Mr. Ashoka Mody, Mr. Dewitt D Marston, and Mathew A. Verghis