Archived Series > Occasional Papers

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Mr. Luca A Ricci, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Jaewoo Lee, Mr. Alessandro Prati, and Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti

Abstract

The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economies. This Occasional Paper summarizes the methodologies that underpin the expanded analysis.

Mr. Luca A Ricci, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Jaewoo Lee, Mr. Alessandro Prati, and Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti

Abstract

The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economies. This Occasional Paper summarizes the methodologies that underpin the expanded analysis.

Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Romain Ranciere, and Mr. Olivier D Jeanne

Abstract

This paper focuses on what countries can do on their own—that is, on the role of domestic policies—with respect to country insurance. Member countries are routinely faced with a range of shocks that can contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and, in extreme cases, to economic crises. The presence of such risks underlies a potential demand for mechanisms to soften the blow from adverse economic shocks. For all countries, the first line of defense against adverse shocks is the pursuit of sound policies. In light of the large costs experienced by emerging markets and developing countries as a result of past debt crises, fiscal policies should seek to improve sustainability, taking into account that sustainable debt levels seem to be lower in emerging and developing countries than in advanced countries. Although much can be accomplished by individual countries through sound policies, risk management, and self-insurance through reserves, collective insurance arrangements are likely to continue playing a key role in cushioning countries from the impact of shocks.

Mr. Robin Brooks, Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, Mr. Ashoka Mody, Nienke Oomes, and Mr. Aasim M. Husain

Abstract

The issue of the appropriate exchange rate regime for individual countries has been perennially lively, and the role played by international capital flows and domestic financial systems in determining the performance of these regimes has gained prominence in the policy debate. Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, the key message in this paper is that, as economies and their institutions mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility increases. This study assesses the historical durability and performance of alternative exchange rate regimes, with special focus on developing and emerging market countries. It describes trends in the distribution of regimes and examines the transitions between regimes. It also reviews the performance of exchange rate regimes in terms of inflation and business cycles.

Mr. Jaime Cardoso and Mr. Philip M Young

Abstract

This paper summarizes the authorities’ stabilization efforts, how these efforts were subsequently reinforced by certain key structural reforms, and other related developments that help explain the remarkable performance of the Dominican Republic’s economy in the 1990s during which the country achieved one of the highest output growth rates in Latin America, combined with low inflation, and a much improved external debt profile. The authorities often resorted to external arrears as a means of financing the external current account deficits of the 1980s. Although rescheduling agreements were reached with the international banking community and with the Paris Club of official creditors in the mid-1980s, they met with limited success until the authorities embarked on their stabilization program of the early 1990s. Large and persistent fiscal deficits represented a significant burden for monetary policy. Although at the beginning of the decade more than half of the public deficit was financed by foreign loans, episodes of default on external and domestic government debt led to a progressive drying up of these sources of financing.

Mr. Owen Evens and Peter J. Quirk

Abstract

The paper summarizes the main issues arising from experiences of industrial and developing countries with capital account liberalization and it examines the IMF's treatment of capital controls in its surveillance, use of IMF resources, and technical assistance activities. Case studies of recent experiences with capital controls in Chile, Colombia, Malaysia, and Venezuela are presented.

Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar and Mr. Pablo Emilio Guidotti

Abstract

This study discusses the evolution of domestic public debt in several indebted countries and its relationship with their external debt and underlying fiscal developments. It examines the links between domestic and external debt, taxes, subsidies, and government spending, and reviews strategies for managing domestic public debt.

Mr. G. Russell Kincaid, K. Burke Dillon, Mr. Maxwell Watson, and Ms. Chanpen Puckahtikom

Abstract

This paper, following two earlier studies, reviews the arrangements for restructuring commercial bank and official debt up to early 1985.