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Mr. Nicolas Arregui and Ms. Yu Shi
This paper uses firm-level data that covers over 1.2 million Spanish firms during the period of 2003-2019 to provide an updated assessment of the drivers of labor productivity in the Spanish economy, focusing on both TFP and firm investment. The empirical analysis shows significant differences in production constraints in both the capital market and the labor market, across firm size and age. This paper also includes a review of Spain’s ambitious reform commitments under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan and concludes with recommendations for further action.
Ana Lariau and Ms. Yu Shi
We provide a tractable framework for assessing the labor market impact of policies that support the green transition of the Spanish economy, taking into account input-output linkages. We present illustrative examples that quantify changes in sectoral employment, occupations and skills stemming from two different green policies: (i) the announced green investments in the recovery plan; and (ii) an increase in carbon pricing and an expansion of the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). Our analysis shows that the labor market impact of these two policies is net positive, although the results depend on the design of the green policies, particularly on the use of the proceeds from the increase in carbon pricing. Strengthening active labor market policies, with a focus on training, and complementing them with education policies such as the expansion of vocational training, would facilitate the transition of workers from shrinking to expanding sectors.
Mr. Yibin Mu
A key challenge for Lesotho is the downward rigidity in public expenditure—which increases when SACU transfers are buoyant but fails to be pared back when they fall. Fiscal rules would be of value in Lesotho to help provide constraints on spending and resist political pressure to overspend, while embedding fiscal responsibility within the country’s macro-fiscal framework and ensuring debt sustainability. This paper evaluates options for fiscal rules for Lesotho, discusses the institutional framework required to help underpin a sound fiscal-rule framework, posits a possible fiscal-rule framework for Lesotho, and offers a roadmap to introduce the framework.
Mr. Yibin Mu
In a country such as Lesotho with high capital mobility and leakages abroad, the relationship between both fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policy is intertwined, such that public spending and reserves are strongly linked. The paper offers an overview of the economic institutions and arrangements in Lesotho, discusses a short primer on macroeconomic policies under a fixed exchange rate, stresses a vital role for macro policy coordination in Lesotho, and proposes a macro policy framework. While the paper is developed in context of Lesotho, the analysis should also be applicable to small open economies under the fixed exchange rate arrangement.
Mr. Yibin Mu
Lesotho’s fiscal situation is challenging. This paper assesses the pressure points of main components of revenues, current spending, and capital spending, and then proposes a growth-friendly consolidation plan while protecting the vulnerable.