Mrs. Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Rupa Duttagupta, and Rishi Goyal
This paper considers options to address concerns related to functioning of the International Monetary System. Despite its relative stability, the current “non-system” has the inherent weaknesses of a setup with a dominant country-issued reserve currency, wherein the reserve issuer runs fiscal and external deficits to meet growing world demand for reserve assets and where there is no ready mechanism forcing surplus or reserve-issuing countries to adjust. The problem has amplified in recent years in line with a sharp rise in the demand for reserves, reflecting in part emerging markets’ tendency to self-insure against costly capital account crises. On the demand side, the paper explores alternative insurance arrangements that could mitigate the precautionary demand for reserves. On the supply side, it assesses a menu of alternative reserve assets that could offer sustained stability and efficiency. Many of the proposals presented would require fundamental changes in the forms and degree of international cooperation, however, may gain realism and practical relevance if more incremental efforts at strengthening the current system fail.
Mr. Christopher W. Crowe, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Jun I Kim, Mr. Marcos d Chamon, and Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
This chapter outlines policies to help solve the debt overhang and bring about recovery in both groups of countries. The current financial turmoil is confronting emerging market economies with two shocks: a ‘sudden stop’ of capital inflows resulting from the global deleveraging process, and a collapse in export demand associated with the global slump. A key ingredient appears to be greater official financing to expand the ‘policy space’ available to emerging market economies (EME) to pursue supportive macroeconomic policies—including, in countries with large debt overhangs, by helping to meet the fiscal outlays associated with the resolution of that overhang. An important first step is to ensure an adequate framework to facilitate rapid debt workouts. Debt restructuring mechanisms can provide greater scope for monetary easing by reducing the negative repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on unhedged balance sheets. Depending on the available fiscal space, expansionary fiscal policy should also be deployed to support economic activity.