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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Uzbekistan, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses key channels by which fiscal consolidation impacts short- and medium-term growth, examines the international experience on how to make fiscal consolidation more growth friendly, and analyzes policy implications for Uzbekistan. A large part of the adjustment is implemented with high-quality efficiency-enhancing measures: reducing energy subsidies, improving the targeting of social spending, and curbing policy lending. The World Bank Public Expenditure Review notes that nonwage spending in health and education is low and crowded out by high wage bills, which have been growing in recent years as efforts to improve pay in these areas were implemented. This points to the need to review the adequacy of nonwage spending in these sectors and undertake wage bill rationalization more broadly since these are large sectors of public employment. In the specific case of health spending, consideration should be given to strengthening primary care and introducing task-shifting which will lead to greater efficiency from health wage bill expenditure by shifting its composition over the medium term. Unify the public investment process irrespective of the financing source; create a unified appraisal and selection process; establish a single project pipeline; and improve project monitoring and evaluation to increase public investment efficiency.
Keywords:
market regulation; privatizing state enterprises; impact of fiscal consolidation; channels of impact; government data; Fiscal consolidation; Corruption; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Growth is expected to remain robust at 5.4 percent in 2024, despite the appropriate withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and slowing trading partner growth. In 2025, growth is projected to pick up to around 5½ percent. Needed increases in administered energy prices would temporarily raise inflation to 11.5 percent by end-2024. The government’s planned fiscal consolidation is appropriate and will help reduce inflation and imports while protecting the vulnerable. Further efforts are needed to broaden the tax base, modernize the tax system, improve the efficiency of public spending, and strengthen public financial management. Monetary policy should remain focused on reducing inflation to the central bank’s target and be tightened if energy price reforms spill over to core inflation and inflation expectations. Structural reforms should focus on reducing the state’s role in the economy, promoting women’s participation in the labor market, advancing decarbonization and climate adaptation initiatives, and enhancing governance and transparency, building on progress already made.
Keywords:
central bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan; PPG debt; IMF's classification system; consumer price inflation projection; lending portfolio; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Inflation; Loans; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on Republic of Uzbekistan discusses summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations of National Accounts mission. The Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC) conducted a TA mission on source data for national accounts. The main purpose of the mission was to assist the Statistics Agency (SA) of Uzbekistan in improving source data for compiling annual and quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). The national accounts team has made very good progress in compiling and disseminating quarterly national accounts aggregates on a discrete basis, which are required for subscription to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The mission reviewed and discussed source data collection issues for all GDP activities. The mission reviewed the compilation of some GDP aggregates. The methods for quarterly GDP discrete estimates follow international best practices. During the meeting with senior management, it has been agreed that all improvements suggested to source data would be taken into account and implemented. Moreover, cooperation with tax authorities should be sought to increase data coverage for small and micro units, as well as individual producers.
Keywords:
GDP; GDP by production; source data; statistical questionnaires; trade margins.; World Bank staff; IMF executive directors; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Compialtion issue; SA business statistics division; Data collection; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Consumer price indexes; Industrial production
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on Republic of Uzbekistan focuses on details of National Accounts Statistics mission. Significant progress on national accounts made by The Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in recent years has been reflected in the compilation of discrete quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and the implementation of 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA), although there are some areas for further improvement. The mission noted that the quality of national accounts is highly dependent on the quality of data sources, and their improvement should be a priority for the SA. The mission reviewed the structure of gross value added at current prices and the share of each sector in GDP and identified sectors with underestimated levels of non-observed economy (NOE). The mission recommended that the SA conduct sector-specific NOE surveys in the relevant sectors. The mission also reviewed the compilation of supply and use tables and developed a plan for further improvement. The mission recommended that the SA apply sampling methods when planning each survey. High-quality questionnaires and representative sampling are important for sector specific surveys. The sampling of households should be stratified and should include all geographical regions of the country.
Keywords:
GDP; supply and use tables; non-observed economy; FISIM; 2008 SNA.; World Bank staff; SA staff; IMF executive directors; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; SUT framework; NOE estimate; Consumption; Household consumption; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global