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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Tajikistan, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Request for a Twenty-Two-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; Debt Sustainability Analysis; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Tajikistan’s Request for a Twenty-Two-Month Policy Coordination Instrument. Tajikistan’s favorable post-pandemic economic performance continued in 2023, with strong, broad-based growth and low inflation. The program focuses on improving fiscal resilience to increase space for priority social and development spending while keeping public debt on a downward trajectory. Fiscal reforms under the program increase revenue mobilization and spending efficiency and strengthen social protection of the most vulnerable. Monetary, exchange rate and financial sector policies aim to strengthen the economy’s resilience to shocks. Improvements in exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy transmission will enhance shock absorption and facilitate a gradual transition toward inflation targeting. Tajikistan is reliant on remittances, primarily from Russia, to support domestic demand and provide a source of foreign exchange. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russia.
Keywords:
NBT legislation; NBT credit; twenty-two-month Policy Coordination Instrument; Policy discussion; policy transmission; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt sustainability; Monetary base; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Tajikistan continued to experience strong growth in 2022, with minimal disruption from the war in Ukraine as strong financial inflows supported domestic demand and liquidity. Fiscal space remains limited due to debt sustainability concerns, and the fiscal deficit target of 2.5 percent of gross domestic product is an important anchor to keep public debt on a downward trajectory. Inflation remains well-contained, but strong monetary growth in 2022 warrants caution and macroprudential controls could help mitigate potential risks. Enhancing exchange rate flexibility is also an important part of the policy toolkit to absorb external shocks. A transition to inflation targeting will require sustained efforts to improve monetary policy transmission. Emerging risks call for further strengthening banking supervision in line with the 2022 Financial Sector Stability Review. Far-reaching structural reforms are critical to unlock the economy's long-term potential and support growth that is more inclusive.
Keywords:
Tajik authorities; reform effort; Rogun hydropower plant; aluminum company TALCO; extent Tajikistan; government approval; External sector statistics; Debt sustainability analysis; Government finance statistics; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
With a strong recovery in train, the authorities are gradually withdrawing the policy stimulus released during the pandemic. Although debt is sustainable, there is a high risk of debt distress. At the same time, financing the Roghun dam project while implementing tax reform remains a key challenge. The financial sector has stabilized, but intermediation remains low. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside due to uncertainty on the pandemic and regional spillovers.
Keywords:
government of the Republic of Tajikistan; monetary policy stance; liquidation procedure; Tajik authorities; government decree; growth projection; Debt sustainability analysis; Financial statistics; External sector statistics; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
remittance inflow; Tajik remittance; growth-remittance spillover analysis; remittance determination; ruble-U.S. dollar exchange; Remittances; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
D. tax incentives; tax incentives in Tajikistan; C. SOE reform effort; Tajikistan's tax incentives; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tax incentives; Corporate income tax; Fiscal risks; Public enterprises; Central Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: 2013 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Tajikistan successfully completed a 3-year ECF-supported program in May 2012 and needs to continue with ambitious reforms. While growth is robust, it is non-inclusive, leading to large-scale outmigration that makes Tajikistan the most remittance-dependent country in the world. The country remains the poorest of the eight in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and stands next to last among the seven with rankings in the ease of doing business. Reliance on commodity imports, a narrow export base, and low buffers leave the economy vulnerable. Weak macroeconomic policy frameworks restrict the authorities’ ability to dampen shocks. State-directed lending and investment displace market-financed activity and create fiscal risks. Presidential elections are scheduled for November.
Keywords:
burden indicator; NBT reform action plan; flows shock; creating flow; headline inflation; NBT website; IMF's transparency policy; NBT internal audit; policy discussion; NBT Law; fund request; remittance inflow; Debt sustainability analysis; Monetary statistics; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia