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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Lao People's Democratic Republic: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lao People's Democratic Republic
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Growth gathered momentum in 2023 on the back of recovering external demand, but exchange rate depreciation continues and inflation remains persistently high. Labor and FX shortages are intensifying. Public debt is assessed to be unsustainable, despite a tight fiscal stance. FX reserves remain low.
Keywords:
foreign exchange bureau; article IV consultation discussion; USD rate; obtaining FX; reference rate; market-clearing exchange rate; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda has navigated the post pandemic recovery well due to sound macroeconomic policies. The economic recovery is strengthening with low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong industrial and services activity. While public debt is sustainable, low tax revenues constrain Uganda’s fiscal policy space. Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and budgetary and cash management practices are key to securing a durable fiscal space. The Bank of Uganda’s tight monetary policy stance has helped anchor inflation expectations and counter external sector pressures. Going forward, monetary policy should remain data driven to ensure price stability and further financial deepening. Continued flexibility of the exchange rate is important to build up adequate foreign exchange reserves. Uganda should continue its efforts to create fiscal space through revenue mobilization and better expenditure discipline, vigilant monetary policy, and exchange rate flexibility, using future oil revenue to address growth impediments and improve social development while advancing governance reform and financial inclusion. Addressing governance deficiencies and regulatory burdens and enhancing regional trade integration are critical to unlocking Uganda’s growth potential.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; NDP IV; inflation expectation; fiscal consolidation effort; core inflation; data dependent; headline inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Debt sustainability; Global; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores effects of social unrest in Guatemala. The paper estimates the effects of social unrest on Guatemala’s economy from 2001 to 2023, using the monthly Reported Social Unrest Index as a measure of social unrest. The estimations of the empirical model suggest no effects of social unrest episodes on the main external sector variables. The empirical evidence suggests little to no impact of social unrest in Guatemala. Contrary to Hadzi-Vaskov et al. (2023), the analysis of the effects of social unrest in Guatemala suggests that the effects on the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors are mild, limited, and temporary if not negligible. On the one hand, the lack of cross-country dimensionality is a limitation of our analysis, but on the other hand, exploiting monthly data allows us to disentangle unrest episode effects at higher frequencies than other papers in the literature. Overall, the results are robust to different specifications; the set of controls is extensive and includes controls for future social unrest shocks autocorrelations. The results suggest that Guatemala is resilient to unrest shocks at business-cycle frequencies, even of considerable magnitude.
Keywords:
social spending efficiency; remittance inflow; investment agenda; government expenditure gap; Guatemala's economy; Labor force participation; Gender inequality; Remittances; Women; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Italy: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the paradox of Italy’s low fertility and low female labor force participation. Within-household allocation of housework tends to be relatively specialized in Italy, and with more limited burden-sharing in households with children. Social and cultural norms are frequently cited as one of the main reasons for Italy’s large time-use gender gaps. With ingrained norms, changing behaviors might be seen as very challenging. Yet Italy’s work-family outcomes have undergone significant shifts within a relatively short time span, most likely in response to large structural changes in the nature of employment contracts and the macroeconomic environment. In Italy, both fertility and female labor force participation lag behind peer countries. The number of births has fallen by a third over the last fifteen years, while female labor force participation remains very low. This uncommon combination points to the need to improve the compatibility of work and family life. Moreover, a large divide exists between Northern and Southern regions, with much lower female labor force participation but a similar fertility rate in the South, suggesting the presence of structural impediments, such as labor market rigidities and scarcity of childcare facilities.
Keywords:
debt servicing cost; firm profitability; net childcare cost; Italy's resilience; simulation result; gender wage gap; Women; Gender diversity; Nonperforming loans; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritius: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on improving revenue mobilization in Mauritius and assessing the potential and reform options. The tax gap in Mauritius is estimated at 5.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), at the top end of tax gaps of its peers. Both domestic and international taxation reforms could help narrow the gap. Reforming the personal income tax (PIT) and the value added tax (VAT) could altogether yield 3 percent of GDP in additional tax revenue. This could be achieved by lowering PIT thresholds, while increasing the top rates, and streamlining VAT exemptions. The expected implementation of the global minimum tax on corporations internationally provides an opportunity to reconsider the tax policy approach to investment promotion in Mauritius. A desirable strategy for Mauritius would be to move away from the generous benefits offered, including tax holidays, toward a more neutral taxation of investments. While there is potential to mobilize additional revenue through tax reforms, care should be taken that vulnerable households are protected, including through compensatory social spending.
Keywords:
gender equality indicator; reform option; revenue collection; tax revenue in Mauritius; parental leave legislation; Personal income tax; Gender inequality; Women; Tax gap; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the main drivers of persistent gender gaps in leadership in Japan and identifies public policies that can play a role in closing these gaps. Despite its economic relevance, analysis on the drivers of women leaders and managers in Japan is limited. There are a few existing studies, such as Yamaguchi (2013), that use firm level or survey-based data to identify the key constraints to women’s career advancement. Women are also underrepresented in policy-making positions. The availability of public childcare facilities has improved, and is positively associated with the share of female managers. As witnessed in the case of Japan, increasing female labor force participation is not sufficient to ensure that women have good jobs and good careers. In order to foster the advancement of women into managerial and leadership positions, policy efforts need acceleration. Reforming current employment practices and policies are essential for improving women’s quality of jobs. This will also help increase productivity, wages and advance an equal society. First, further progress should be made on work-style reforms, such as encouraging the use of flexible working schedules and teleworking options.
Keywords:
funding affect startup performance; labor market dualism; risk culture; childcare leave cause; wage income; Income inequality; Income; Women; Income distribution; Gender inequality; Global; East Asia