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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Growth gathered momentum in 2023 on the back of recovering external demand, but exchange rate depreciation continues and inflation remains persistently high. Labor and FX shortages are intensifying. Public debt is assessed to be unsustainable, despite a tight fiscal stance. FX reserves remain low.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues Paper analyzes potential macro-financial risks from cross-sectoral exposures in Uganda by leveraging on the Balance Sheet Approach framework. It presents evidence on the macro-financial linkages in Uganda using the Network Map and Financial Input-Output approaches. On the one hand, the Network Map analysis shows the cross-sectoral exposures in which potential build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities may arise. On the other hand, the Financial Input-Output tool simulates relevant scenarios in the context of Ugandan economy such as currency depreciation and increases in government interest payments on debt held by banks. The purpose of the scenario exercises is to strengthen the monitoring of the developments in key economic sectors in Uganda. While the banking sector, which dominates the Ugandan financial system, remains fundamentally sound, there are pockets of vulnerabilities resulting from the growing sovereign-bank nexus and cross-border exposures of the Near Field Communication technology sector which require close vigilance.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Saudi Arabia’s unprecedented economic transformation is progressing well. Strong domestic demand is keeping non-oil growth robust while unemployment is at record lows. Inflation is contained and the current account surplus is rapidly narrowing. The recalibration of the authorities’ investment plans would help reduce overheating risks and pressures on fiscal and external accounts.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the paradox of Italy’s low fertility and low female labor force participation. Within-household allocation of housework tends to be relatively specialized in Italy, and with more limited burden-sharing in households with children. Social and cultural norms are frequently cited as one of the main reasons for Italy’s large time-use gender gaps. With ingrained norms, changing behaviors might be seen as very challenging. Yet Italy’s work-family outcomes have undergone significant shifts within a relatively short time span, most likely in response to large structural changes in the nature of employment contracts and the macroeconomic environment. In Italy, both fertility and female labor force participation lag behind peer countries. The number of births has fallen by a third over the last fifteen years, while female labor force participation remains very low. This uncommon combination points to the need to improve the compatibility of work and family life. Moreover, a large divide exists between Northern and Southern regions, with much lower female labor force participation but a similar fertility rate in the South, suggesting the presence of structural impediments, such as labor market rigidities and scarcity of childcare facilities.