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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Staff Report for the First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Somalia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Somalia’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria. Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 3.7 percent in 2024 compared to 2.8 percent in 2023, supported by continued recovery in agriculture, greater remittances, and higher investment. Somalia has continued to advance its reform agenda and program performance has been strong. Policy priorities are to maintain fiscal sustainability, strengthen revenues and public financial management, promote financial deepening, improve governance, and enhance statistics. Ongoing reforms to strengthen central bank institutional capacity are commendable. Careful formulation of the monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks is important in the context of the planned currency reform. Measures to bolster inclusive growth and strengthen resilience are important. The authorities are focused on building capacity in the petroleum sector and implementing its legal framework. Addressing food insecurity, building climate resilience, and enhancing trade integration are central to ensuring Somalia’s long-term development.
Keywords:
Somali authorities; program floor; staff appraisal; program ceiling; Net international reserves; Debt relief; Debt service; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper-Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Somalia highlights that Somalia continued to face challenges while implementing the Ninth National Development Plan in 2021 and 2022. Since 2020, the country has been struggling with the ongoing impacts of a desert locust infestation, persistent drought, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and global food and fuel price increases due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All of these shocks compounded the hardships of the population, including food insecurity. The number of people facing food insecurity due to the drought rose from 3.2 million in January 2022 to5.6 million by end-2022. Parliamentary and Presidential elections that were supposed to commence by end-2020 were not completed until in May 2022, also affecting the timing of external grant disbursements. The mid-term review report addresses concerns raised in staffs’ previous JSAN on Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Completion Point, climate change, and revenue mobilization. In terms of progress toward the HIPC Completion Point, as of September 2023 the government has completed 13 of 14 Completion Point triggers.
Keywords:
member country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper; Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper to the executive boards; copyright page; objective of the JSAN; government program; Poverty reduction strategy; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Staff Report for the Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Somalia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents the Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the ECF. The authorities’ strong commitment and successful implementation of reforms to rebuild Somalia’s economy and institutions, including the completion of the program supported by the ECF, have led to Somalia reaching the completion point under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Somalia’s new ECF-supported program builds on progress so far, including the HIPC Completion Point, and seeks to advance reforms to strengthen key economic institutions and promote inclusive growth. Continued financial and capacity development support from international partners is imperative to support the authorities’ reform efforts. Fiscal policy will be guided by a prudent framework that balances the need for higher development expenditure with protecting fiscal sustainability and taking into account capacity constraints. External financing is expected to be based solely on grants and concessional loans to preserve debt sustainability.
Keywords:
Somali authorities; ECF arrangement; HIPC Completion Point; government institution; ECF program; Debt relief; Debt service; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative-Completion Point Document
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper on Somalia focuses on completion point document for enhanced heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative. Somalia has been rebuilding state institutions and the economy since the end of the devastating civil war, with strong support from the international community. Somalia has implemented critical reforms in support of pro-poor growth, poverty reduction, better public financial management and debt management. These reforms establish the conditions for the effective use of irrevocable debt relief to support the people of Somalia. Deepening structural reforms after the Completion Point will be critical to boost private sector growth and create fiscal space to invest more in human development and infrastructure in support of inclusive and resilient growth. The Somali authorities remain firmly committed to sustaining the reform momentum post-HIPC to build resilience, promote inclusive growth, and reduce poverty. The World Bank and IMF will continue working together to provide the technical assistance and policy guidance the authorities need to achieve these goals. The IMF will continue its engagement with Somalia in the context of the new three-year IMF financial arrangement as well as capacity development support sponsored by the Somalia Country Fund.
Keywords:
HIPC debt relief; MDRI debt relief; reform journey; Somali authorities; IDA portfolio; IMF press release No. 23/437; Somalia's debt relief process; reconciliation exercise; Debt relief; Debt service; Arrears; Debt service ratios; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Somalia highlights National Accounts Statistics Mission. The mission’s purpose was to provide technical assistance to the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) in conducting a comprehensive gross domestic product (GDP) revision to incorporate latest source data and methods and to update the base year from 2017 to 2022. The mission assisted the SNBS to produce updated annual GDP time series up to 2022. New data sources were incorporated and the base year for constant prices updated from 2017 to 2022. There is a continuing need to improve source data. While the GDP compilation system makes good use of the limited available data, the foundation for the national accounts remains weak. SNBS will conduct a Business Census in respect of 2023, with implementation gearing up at the end of 2023. It also plans to conduct the first Population Census since 1985, which will also support improvements, especially if designed to provide measures of the informal sector. To support progress toward objectives, the mission recommended a detailed action plan with the priority recommendations carrying particular weight to make headway in improving the completeness of Somalia’s national accounts statistics.
Keywords:
GDP; GDP by expenditure; GDP at constant prices; rebased; comprehensive revisions; household consumption.; compilation system; SNBS website; GDP data; population census result; IMF surveillance; IMF's statistics department; agriculture census; Somalia GDP estimate; Imports; Household consumption; Consumption
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper-Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) reviews the first Annual Progress Report (APR) on Somalia’s Ninth National Development Plan (NDP9). NDP9 is a nationally owned and comprehensive strategy for poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It covers 2020–2024 and is organized around the four pillars: Inclusive Politics, Security and the Rule of Law, Economic Development and Social Development. Somalia began implementing NDP9 at a time of profound challenges posed by the ‘triple crises’ of locust infestations, a global pandemic, and floods. An outbreak of desert locusts started in 2019 that threatened the food supply across the Horn of Africa. In 2020, the world was hit by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The IMF Staff concur with the APR’s assessment that important progress has been made on implementation of the NPD9, despite challenges from the triple shocks faced by Somalia in 2020. Notwithstanding the multiple shocks, the Somali authorities preserved macroeconomic stability and maintained the reform momentum, strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, public financial management, financial sector regulation and supervision, statistics and governance.
Keywords:
objective of the JSAN; copyright page; advisory note; feedback to the country; cash transfer program; Poverty reduction strategy; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criteria and Indicative Target, and Interim Assistance-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Somalia’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criteria and Indicative Target, and Interim Assistance. Despite significant challenges, including from the continued severe food crisis, Somalia has maintained strong reform momentum and program performance has been satisfactory. The authorities’ steady progress under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) process is important to lay the ground for achieving the Completion Point in late 2023. Continued support from international partners is imperative to support the authorities’ policy efforts. The authorities are committed to advancing fiscal and institutional reforms, and normalizing relations with all external creditors. In particular, sustained efforts are needed to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization to make room for priority spending, while containing discretionary expenditure pressures. Timely financing and capacity development support from development partners is essential for the successful implementation of the authorities’ reform strategy. Contributions from Somalia’s partners to the Somalia Country Fund are critical to ensure smooth delivery of IMF technical assistance to support the goals of the ECF-supported program and the HIPC Initiative.
Keywords:
IMF CD support; General government operation; IMF staff estimate; ECF arrangement; policy slippage; Debt relief; Debt sustainability analysis; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues