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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on St. Kitts and Nevis studies economic benefits from energy transition. Cheaper and more stable energy prices can support macroeconomic stability. In addition to the aforementioned effects, low and stable energy prices can mitigate the adverse impact from terms-of-trade shocks and reduce inflation volatility, thus contributing to smoothing out economic cycles. The energy landscape of St. Kitts and Nevis calls for energy reform. The two islands of St. Kitts and Nevis rely heavily on fossil fuels, primarily diesel, to power their grids without Interconnection. The analysis uses cross-country examples to examine the channels through which the adoption of renewable energy on a large scale can yield numerous long-term economic benefits. Transitioning to domestic renewable energy sources could stabilize domestic energy prices and reduce the volatility of inflation. A sharp reduction in energy costs in St. Kitts and Nevis could promote sectoral diversification. High-energy costs can prohibit economic diversification, particularly into energy intensive industries.
Keywords:
energy transition index; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; carbon capture in St. Kitts and Nevis; inflation volatility; copyright page; Renewable energy; Electricity; Energy prices; Non-renewable resources; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with St. Kitts and Nevis discusses that despite a continued strong tourism performance, growth fell to 3.4 percent in 2023 due to delays in public and private sector investment projects. The economic outlook is positive thanks to the renewable energy projects that would significantly reshape the economy. A privately funded utility-scale solar and battery storage project is expected to be completed in 2025 and a geothermal project in Nevis is at the planning stage. Debt and cash management could be improved and the social security fund requires urgent reform. Maintaining a large amount of short-term debt can be costly, particularly when fiscal buffers are available. The 2023 external position is assessed to be weaker than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. The current account deficit is projected to fall to over the medium term supported by lower fossil fuel imports. International reserves are adequate.
Keywords:
CBI revenue; GDP estimate; ECCB website; visitor expenditure survey; advance CBI legislation; ECCB member country; CBI program; Renewable energy; Current spending; Nonperforming loans; Capital spending; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes drivers of core inflation in Austria. Inflation in Austria has declined on falling energy prices, but the pace of its return to the two percent target is uncertain. In order to gain insight into the likely pace of disinflation, this chapter examines key drivers of core inflation from two perspectives. First, it explores how energy prices have affected core inflation by examining differences in inflation trends between core goods and services with a relatively high energy-input content versus those with a relatively low energy-input content. Second, the paper uses a parsimonious econometric model to generate forecasts of core inflation. The paper concludes that there are good reasons to expect core inflation to keep falling as lower energy prices continue to pass through to core prices and as euro-area inflation, a key determinant of Austrian inflation in the econometric model, continues to fall. However, the IMF staff does not project Austrian inflation to reach the two percent target for some time, given inflation’s current elevated level and somewhat sticky services inflation.
Keywords:
housing price indicator; core inflation development; housing supply gap; A. looming expenditure pressure; model-implied core inflation; Inflation; Housing; Renewable energy; Women; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes inflation in the Czech Republic. The paper analyzes using an adaptive learning structural model. A structural model incorporating adaptive learning features is well suited to project inflation path in the Czech Republic. In Czechia, inflation expectations are notably shaped by past inflation outcomes, creating a feedback loop where rapidly decreasing inflation contributes to a shorter duration of elevated inflation, and vice-versa. Within this model, the central bank influences inflation through three channels. The first is direct-tightening policy reduces demand, lowers the output gap, and thus decreases inflation. The other two channels operate through inflation expectations. Tightening policy not only reduces current inflation but also impacts future expectations. Importantly, in contrast to perfect foresight-rational expectations models, the central bank can shape agents’ learning. Lower-than-expected current inflation leads to adjustments in how past inflation is perceived, influencing future inflation. The model suggests that the speed to reach the inflation target depends on the strength of the monetary policy stance.
Keywords:
decarbonization strategy; inflation in the Czech republic; green transition; financial conditions in Czechia; economy FCI; Inflation; Renewable energy; Non-renewable resources; Greenhouse gas emissions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maroc: 2023 - demande d’un accord au titre de la facilité pour la résilience et la durabilité-communiqué de presse et rapport des services du FMI
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Le changement climatique est à la fois une menace considérable et l’occasion de nouvelles possibilités de développement pour le Maroc. D’une part, le Maroc est l’un des pays du monde les plus touchés par le stress hydrique et la pénurie d’eau est un sérieux obstacle qui empêche le pays de satisfaire son ambition d’aller vers un nouveau modèle de développement. Les autorités prévoient d’accroître les investissements en infrastructures hydriques, mais elles devront les compléter par des réformes de gestion de la demande pour rapprocher le prix de l’eau de son coût réel et susciter un changement de comportement des usagers. D’autre part, le Maroc peut tirer parti de l’abondance et de la compétitivité de ses ressources énergétiques renouvelables pour réduire sa dépendance encore prononcée à l’égard des combustibles fossiles. Le processus de décarbonation de son modèle énergétique nécessiterait de considérables investissements dans les énergies renouvelables, qui devraient être essentiellement assumés par le secteur privé. Ce processus nécessiterait également de profondes réformes réglementaires, notamment de nouvelles mesures pour libéraliser le secteur de l’électricité. La pleine exploitation de ce potentiel énergétique renouvelable pourrait permettre au Maroc de réduire sa dépendance à l’égard des combustibles importés, de renforcer la compétitivité de ses entreprises sur les marchés voisins qui s’engagent sur la voie de la transition écologique (notamment l’Union européenne) et de contribuer à la création d’emplois. Le fort séisme qui a frappé le Maroc le 8 septembre, entraînant un lourd tribut en termes de vies humaines et de dégâts matériels, souligne l’importance de renforcer la préparation et la résilience du pays face aux catastrophes naturelles, notamment au changement climatique.
Keywords:
food inflation; CPI headline inflation; staff appraisal; RSF arrangement; RSF review; Climate change; Natural disasters; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Global; Maghreb
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the reasons for Romania’s low labor force participation (LFP), and outlines policy options to raise it. It provides an overview over Romania’s demographic challenges, analyzes LFP across demographic groups, and identifies possible causes. The paper also outlines policy options that could help raise LFP of specific population groups and presents simple simulations of the impact on overall LFP and potential gross domestic product if LFP of particular groups were to increase. Boosting Romania’s low LFP opens opportunities to mitigate the impact of an ageing society and to support Romania’s convergence to Western European peers. Higher LFP could also help mitigate the fiscal impact of an ageing society. The reasons for the Romania’s underperformance in education are difficult to pinpoint, but public education expenditure is by far the lowest in the EU. Moreover, raising education spending would constitute a significant investment and would need to be coupled with targeted reforms in the education system.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; energy mix; C. climate policy; policy pathway; EU LFP level; Romania team; Greenhouse gas emissions; Renewable energy; Women; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Morocco: Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplement; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for Morocco. The arrangement will support Morocco’ transition to a greener economy and help strengthen its preparedness and resilience against natural disasters, including from climate change. Climate change represents a major risk to Morocco’s development but also offers opportunities. Drought and water scarcity have become a major source of macroeconomic volatility, with particularly adverse impacts on agriculture, while the fallout from the recent earthquake points to the potential implications of natural disasters, including from climate change. The RSF will help Morocco boost investment in renewable energy, increase energy efficiency, strengthen resilience against natural disasters, green its financial sector, and tackle water scarcity. It will also help bolster Morocco’s external stability by reducing its dependence on imported energy and helping attract foreign direct investment. By achieving these objectives, and with continued support from other development partners, the RSF is expected to contribute to mobilize the private financing required to implement Morocco’s climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.
Keywords:
food inflation; CPI headline inflation; staff appraisal; RSF arrangement; RSF review; Climate change; Natural disasters; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Global; Maghreb