International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper aims to provide an overview of potential benefits of adopting a formal fiscal rule for Trinidad and Tobago, along with an overview of the international experience with anchoring fiscal policy in natural resource-rich countries. The authorities have also aimed to manage the swings in energy prices with its Sovereign Wealth Fund. A rules-based fiscal framework consists of several main elements that guide the management of a country's fiscal policy. A strong institutional framework for fiscal policy is key to successfully implement a rule-based fiscal framework. Trinidad and Tobago could gain from further deepening reforms underway to strengthen its fiscal framework before considering the adoption of a fiscal rule. The eventual depletion of oil and gas reserves and lower global demand for fossil fuel due to the transition to a low-carbon environment require accumulating adequate savings for future generations. A well-designed fiscal rule can help address these challenges. Moreover, the effectiveness of fiscal rules would hinge on several factors, including strong fiscal institutions, active and sound macroeconomic forecasting, and analysis, and strong and sustained political commitment to a medium-term fiscal goal.
This Selected Issues Paper takes stock of progress in the project’s expected timeline, investment and production prospects, and the project’s potential macroeconomic implications. Drawing from review of empirical literature, the paper also highlights key lessons for managing revenues from natural gas. This paper is the first step toward a more comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the project, which will require information on the technical details of the projects as well as the fiscal regime. Tanzania’s Liquefied Natural Gas project aims to commercialize natural gas discoveries made in the deep offshore basin. Negotiations between the government and private sector developers have gained momentum recently and a Host Government Agreement is expected to be signed early this year. Meanwhile, preparatory technical work in terms of site selection and acquisition has advanced. Notwithstanding these achievements, several important steps remain, including amendment of relevant laws, preparing project blueprints, environmental assessments, and a final investment decision. If it goes through, the project has the potential to transform the Tanzanian economy.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.