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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Consulta del Artículo IV 2024, Tercer Examen del Instrumento de Coordinación de Políticas, Modificación de Metas y Primer Examen del Acuerdo en el Marco del Servicio de Resiliencia y Sostenibilidad-Comunicado de Prensa; Informe del Personal
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
La economía paraguaya obtuvo buenos resultados en 2023, con un crecimiento del 4,7%. El crecimiento de este año sigue estando liderado por la solidez de la producción agrícola, las exportaciones y la alta generación de electricidad. La política monetaria se ajustó oportunamente a la rápida caída de la inflación y ahora se está acercando a una orientación neutral. Aunque se produjo un deterioro de la posición fiscal, ya se ha iniciado la consolidación. Se prevé que la cuenta corriente externa se mantenga próxima al equilibrio. Los bancos siguen siendo rentables y cuentan con provisiones adecuadas.
Keywords:
Principios Básicos de Basilea; Crédito; Acuerdos cambiarios; Gasto; Regulación y supervisión financiera; Divisas; Dinero; Deuda pública; Gasto en inversión pública.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, and First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Modification of Targets, and First Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The PCI underpins Paraguay's economic strategy and structural objectives of maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting social welfare and inclusion. The PCI is yielding positive results, though two targets were missed due to the identification of additional unrecorded healthcare-related expenditure. Three reform targets have been met. The new government is committed to continuing reforms guided by the PCI and RSF arrangements. It is crucial for Paraguay to rebuild fiscal buffers, ensure the sustainability of the public servants’ pension fund and enhance supervision of public enterprises to limit contingent risks. Taking decisive action against corruption to minimize reputational risks, reducing informality, and increasing international market integration will make Paraguay a significantly more attractive investment destination, including for green projects. Adaptation and mitigation measures should reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change and preserve its substantial natural assets and clean energy matrix.
Keywords:
E. World Bank engagement; IMF's holding; B. government policy; climate change adaptation; Paraguay's effort; Exchange rate arrangements; Public investment spending; Basel Core Principles; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Selected Issues paper focuses on analyzing trade barriers in Paraguay. This study aims to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of Paraguay's trade performance compared to other Latin American nations and countries outside the region that share similar traits with Paraguay. The analysis highlights the crucial role of comprehensive policies in infrastructure development, governance enhancement, and human capital improvement for promoting trade in all countries, including Paraguay. Reducing trade barriers, overcoming infrastructure shortfalls, and enacting policies to enhance Paraguay's attractiveness for investment are key strategies for fostering trade and economic development. Finally, given Paraguay's levels of export concentration across products, alongside an increasing concentration across markets, and the vulnerability of its primary agricultural exports to droughts, diversification strategies should be intensified, both in terms of products and export markets. Investing in agricultural technology and practices that enhance drought resilience is crucial to safeguard primary exports. Additionally, exploring and developing nonagricultural sectors for export can reduce reliance on volatile agricultural commodities.
Keywords:
trade level; trade performance; E. policy implication; trade pattern; elasticity of formality; Social security contributions; Exports; Informal employment; Trade policy; Caribbean; South America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Second Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, Inflation Band Consultation, and Request of Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s Second Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, Inflation Band Consultation, and Request of Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The government is committed to continued prudent macroeconomic policies and the implementation of structural reforms, including a series of adaptation and mitigation measures and to preserve and expand its green energy matrix. Barring global and weather-related external shocks, Paraguay’s growth prospects are bright. It remains important for Paraguay to rebuild fiscal buffers, including through implementation of long-standing structural reforms. The re-establishment of the fiscal deficit rule by 2026 is rightfully the government’s key priority. The authorities are committed to implementing an ambitious set of climate-related reforms consistent with maximum access under the RSF. The commitment to implement an ambitious matrix of climate-related reforms, closely coordinated with development partners, will help enhance the country’s image as a ‘green’ investment destination.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation-targeting regime; sound capacity; BCP credit survey; RSF request; Climate change; Electricity; Global; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of Targets-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and Request for Modification of Targets. The PCI supports Paraguay’s macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, aiming at ensuring macroeconomic and fiscal stability, fostering economic growth, and enhancing social protection and inclusion. Paraguay’s economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience during a four-year period of multiple adverse shocks. As it was recovering from the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, a severe drought hit the economy in early 2022. Economic growth is now rebounding, mainly on behalf of the recovering agricultural sector. The medium-term outlook remains favorable. Paraguay is exposed to various external risks, but their potential impact appears moderate in the near-to-medium term. Economic growth is projected at 4.5 percent for 2023, the external current account is projected to improve notably, and the rate of inflation is expected to converge back to the central bank’s target of four percent in the first half of 2024 at the latest. Continued sound and credible fiscal policies will be critical to safeguard the favorable scenario.
Keywords:
policy buffer; inflation target band; macroeconomic policy; Policy recommendation; Policy discussion; policy meeting; IMF's transparency policy; Government debt management; Inflation; Public sector; Structural reforms; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of Targets-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Recent developments: Paraguay continues to recover from last year’s severe drought, with economic growth for 2023 expected at 4.5 percent. The recovery of agricultural exports is also contributing to an improved external current account, easing potential pressures on the exchange rate. In the context of a continued tight monetary policy stance, inflation has been declining over the last twelve months. The government successfully reduced the fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP, and fiscal policies remain on the envisaged consolidation path. Paraguay’s financial and banking sector remains stable. On April 30, Paraguay held national elections in which the candidate for the ruling Colorado party, Santiago Peña, was elected President by a significant margin.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Request for a Two-Year Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Paraguay continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic amidst simultaneous shocks that would lead to flat GDP growth and inflation above the IT range this year. Those conditions are reflected in rising social demands within a politicized environment before the 2023 general elections. The outlook remains favorable, and the authorities are pursuing policies to follow a stronger, more resilient, and inclusive development path. On the back of very positive experiences with Fund-supported programs, the authorities are requesting approval of a two-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to underpin the implementation of needed structural reforms.