International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Second Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria. The authorities should now build on these achievements and sustain their reform efforts toward more resilient, inclusive and sustainable growth. In order to address debt vulnerabilities, fiscal consolidation should continue, while creating fiscal space to meet development and climate adaptation needs and devising contingency plans to anticipate the possible materialization of fiscal risks, including from natural disasters. The program performance recorded over the second review period continues to attest to the authorities’ strong commitment to reforms. They have successfully advanced the implementation of their reform agenda, while overcoming technical and institutional capacity constraints. The program will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth, with a focus maintained on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, and enhancing governance and anti-corruption frameworks.
This Technical Assistance report discusses Papua New Guinea’s Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI) mission. The mission, in collaboration with the Bank of Papua New Guinea staff, updated the bridge tables from the source data for compiling FSIs for deposit takers (DT) and developed new ones to compile FSIs for Life Insurance Corporations and pension funds (PF) for reporting to IMF’s Statistics Department. The mission identified several areas for improvements in data collection and methodological framework. The mission also updated the metadata and institutional coverage report forms accompanying the publication of FSIs. The 2019 FSIs Guide recommends the collection and dissemination of data on other comprehensive income in the income and expense statements for DTs, ICs and PFs. The Basel I regulatory framework is applied uniformly to all commercial banks, licensed financial institutions and microfinance institutions.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Papua New Guinea’s First Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria. Papua New Guinea’s economic outlook remains favorable. The medium-term outlook is positive but subject to both large upside and downside risks. The strong program performance recorded in the first six months of the ECF/EFF arrangements attests to the authorities’ sustained commitment to reforms, successfully overcoming technical and institutional capacity constraints. Program performance has been strong, with all end-June 2023 performance criteria met and all structural benchmarks implemented. The program will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth, with a focus maintained on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, and enhancing governance and operationalizing the anti-corruption framework.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Requests for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The 38-month arrangement will support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, which seeks to help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth. The reforms will focus on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, and enhancing governance and operationalizing the anti-corruption framework. The medium-term outlook is positive: there are good prospects of new investments in the resource sector, which would boost growth, exports, and fiscal revenue collection. The ECF/EFF arrangements will help address balance of payment needs and rebuild the buffers needed to facilitate a gradual and orderly return to greater exchange rate flexibility. The program will also go toward financing the budget, thereby supporting the authorities’ ambitious fiscal consolidation plans while avoiding a disruptive adjustment. It is also expected to play a catalytic role with other development partners. Given the institutional and technical capacity constraints faced by the authorities, reform measures supported by the program are streamlined, focused, and will be carefully sequenced. Timely capacity development and advice from the IMF will support reform implementation throughout the duration of the program.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Papua New Guinea (PNG)’s economy is weathering the pandemic well, despite many challenges. Real GDP in 2022 is projected to exceed its 2019 level, and the medium-term outlook is positive, supported by investment in (and revenues from) the resource sector. The war in Ukraine is impacting PNG through higher commodity prices and higher inflation, with the former leading to a stronger balance of payments and higher fiscal revenues, since PNG is a large commodity producer. Risks remain skewed to the downside and include a worsening health situation given the low vaccination rate, volatility in commodity prices, and political instability.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a fragile state, vulnerable to recurrent shocks. A third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is straining the healthcare system. Widespread vaccine hesitancy has contributed to very low uptake of the vaccines with about only 2 percent of the population fully vaccinated. Real GDP is estimated to rebound modestly to grow by 1.7 percent in 2021 after the downturn in 2020. Elections are due to take place in June 2022, and the formal campaign period will commence by end-April.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic erupted just as the government was beginning to implement wide-ranging fiscal, foreign exchange, structural, and governance measures under a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to these reforms, but the impact of the crisis is generating balance of payments and fiscal gaps of 4 and 3 percent of GDP, respectively. In the near term, risks are primarily on the downside, especially if there is a widespread local outbreak of the virus. Papua New Guinea’s longer-term outlook remains positive, largely reflecting the likelihood of major resource sector projects.