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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Nigeria, under its new administration, has set out on an ambitious reform path to restore macroeconomic stability and support inclusive growth. The authorities reformed the fuel price subsidies, unified official foreign exchange windows, and are focused on revenue mobilization, governance, and enhancing the monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks, as well as strengthening social safety nets. Near-term risks are tilted to the downside, but determined and well-sequenced implementation of the authorities’ policy intentions would pave the way for faster, more inclusive and resilient growth. Further strengthening bank capitalization and tight supervision are needed to mitigate emerging financial sector stability risks. Improving the functioning of the domestic securities and foreign exchange markets should enhance the monetary transition mechanism and attract capital inflows. Structural reforms can ease near-term policy trade-offs. Nigeria should continue supporting agricultural productivity, sustain actions to reduce oil theft, remove burdensome border procedures, and accelerate climate adaptation measures.
Keywords:
March inflation; inflation projection; monetary policy committee meeting; March production; inflation print; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Inflation; Currency markets; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Post-Financing Assessment Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Nigeria’s post-financing assessment discussions. President Tinubu has moved ahead with important structural reforms: removing fuel subsidies and unifying the various official foreign exchange windows. Growth is projected at 2.9 percent for 2023, and 3 percent in 2024, as hydrocarbon performance revives, including from better control of theft. If the authorities succeed in developing and implementing a comprehensive reform agenda, the medium-term outlook would be much improved. The government’s focus on revenue mobilization and digitalization would improve public service delivery and safeguard fiscal sustainability. The IMF staff assesses that Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate under the baseline. The authorities’ policy intentions are well placed to address risks of a downside scenario where difficult trade-offs may arise between urgent humanitarian needs and debt service, including to the Fund. In such circumstances, aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal adjustment combined with support from development partners would be needed to restore macroeconomic stability.
Keywords:
analytical balance balance sheet; inflation-depreciation spiral; government support; CBN team; CBN financing; CBN definition; Energy subsidies; Inflation; International reserves; Global