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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine, the Maldives’ economic recovery from coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has shown resilience. Real gross domestic product growth is estimated to moderate to 4.4 percent in 2023, before gradually rising to 5.2 percent in 2024. The discussions focus on comprehensive policy reforms to address fiscal vulnerabilities, stem rising balance of payments pressures, and safeguard financial stability, while supporting sustained strong and inclusive growth. Front-loaded fiscal adjustments, accompanied by tighter monetary and macroprudential policies, are urgently needed to reduce vulnerabilities and restore sustainability of public finances. Adopting macroprudential policies will help mitigate systemic risks stemming from sovereign-bank nexus. Financial sector oversight and crisis management should be further enhanced. Strengthening institutions to support climate adaptation and mitigation efforts and mobilize climate finance is crucial. Improving the business climate, addressing governance and corruption vulnerabilities, and enhancing skill developments will help support strong and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
Maldivian authorities; monetary policy coordination; tourism sector; SARTTAC mission; IMF Policy recommendation; Tourism; Debt sustainability analysis; Climate change; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Bank Stress Testing and Climate Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents a technical note on bank stress testing and climate risks analysis in Maldives. Although the Maldives’ economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, macro and financial vulnerabilities remain. The stress test results broadly corroborated the identified vulnerabilities and quantified them. The climate risk analysis considered a micro approach that shocks banks’ immovable asset related loans under three climate scenarios. The system appears well capitalized, although capital ratios are biased upward by large government paper holdings with zero risk weights. The results of the solvency stress test corroborate that banks are less vulnerable to credit risk than they are to the impact of a possible unraveling of the sovereign–bank nexus. Banks’ nonperforming loans (NPL) ratios are projected to increase slightly in the baseline and moderately under stress. The resulting additional loan loss provisions are easily offset by ample pre-provision income.
Keywords:
summary market Risk sensitivity analysis result; market risk sensitivity analysis result; B. liquidity coverage ratio; aggregate capitalization; deposit concentration sensitivity analysis; market Risk sensitivity analysis result; summary solvency Risk result; sensitivity analysis assumption; Stress testing; Nonperforming loans; Loans; Currencies; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Financial Safety Net and Crisis Management Arrangements
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights technical note on financial safety net and crisis management arrangements in Maldives. Maldives legislation includes important elements of a financial safety net and crisis management framework but there are areas for streamlining and improvement. The Maldives Banking Act (MBA) provides tools for the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) to implement early intervention and resolution measures. However, there are shortcomings that need to be addressed to enhance both frameworks and align them with international good practices. The triggers for initiating resolution should be strengthened including a forward-looking perspective. The governance trigger should be enhanced by providing links to bank’s capacity to maintain adequate systems and controls and to effectively manage its risks. The requirement for the delivery of a conservator’s report should not be a prior requirement to implementing resolution powers, as this may jeopardize the timely implementation of effective resolution actions. The MBA should be amended to empower the MMA to trigger resolution and for resolution powers to be applied immediately for a bank deemed nonviable or likely nonviable.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; A. depositor protection; deposit insurance regulation; capital market development authority; FSAP assessment's finding; inter-agency arrangement; Maldives banking Act; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Bank resolution; Bank resolution framework; Lender of last resort; Bridge bank; Crisis prevention; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note on Maldives discusses macroprudential policy. The creation of a macroprudential committee with a clear mandate and decision-making powers is recommended. This committee would rely on a well-resourced financial stability unit, acting as a secretariat and providing data-driven recommendations. The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) should consider creating a set of early warning indicators and further develop its macroprudential toolkit. A comprehensive dashboard of both broad-based and sectoral indicators would help monitor systemic risks. Indicators of credit, real-estate development, corporate performance, and household indebtedness should be considered for implementation. In addition, the introduction of several key macroprudential instruments would help prevent the emergence of systemic risk. MMA should follow through on its plan to introduce two household-related instruments. The Financial Sector Assessment Program team recommends the development of additional instruments to safeguard bank liquidity and reduce the currency mismatch of banks as well as other instruments recommended by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; housing development finance corporation; capital market development authority; FSAP's finding; Maldives finance; Financial sector stability; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Macroprudential policy; Systemic risk; Liquidity requirements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Financial System Stability Assessment; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents financial system stability assessment (FSSA) report for Maldives. Maldives is a tourism dependent economy with a small financial sector dominated by state-owned banks. Systemic risks stem largely from a growing sovereign-bank nexus, high dollarization, and a shortage of foreign exchange. The Financial Sector Assessment Program concluded that further strengthening of financial sector policies is needed to improve the resilience of the financial system. The authorities should adopt regulation to address frictions in the foreign exchange market, resume liquidity management operations and develop systemic risk indicators. Priority should also be given to establishing a macroprudential framework along with instruments, publishing a financial stability report, and ensuring full reporting of non-bank payment obligations. The financial safety net and crisis management arrangements should be enhanced by improving early intervention mechanisms, introducing recovery and resolution planning, and enhancing the deposit insurance system. In addition, an effective liquidity assistance framework should be established.
Keywords:
World Bank FSAP mission; risk analysis; IMF FSAP stress test result; MMA central government debt holding; FSAP finding; bank capitalization; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2021 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Maldives is recovering after the historical 2020 fall in tourism, aided by a rapid coronavirus disease 2019-vaccination program rollout. While the prompt and comprehensive policy approach in early 2020 was effective, a more prolonged pandemic and ambitious infrastructure projects are further weakening large pre-pandemic fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The strong (but still partial) recovery in tourism since 2020Q4 has improved the outlook, but fiscal and external positions are projected to remain weak over the medium term, underpinned by current capital expenditure plans. The Maldives has both a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress. The team agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance might be needed to ensure compatibility with the exchange rate peg, lower external imbalances and build-up reserves. They supported the Maldives Monetary Authority’s ongoing efforts to modernize monetary policy and the foreign exchange operations framework, including those aimed at eliminating exchange rate restrictions and multiple currency practices.
Keywords:
positivity rate; program rollout; MMA authorities; staff projection; staff supplement; Maldivian authorities; MMA advance; COVID-19; Capital spending; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Maldives’ economic activity rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, supported by the authorities’ decisive policy measures. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain elevated due to rising subsidies, high capital spending, and an increased interest burden. The Maldives has a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress. Inflation has risen but is relatively contained due to price subsidies. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a possible sharp slowdown in key source markets for tourism, high commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions. A resumption of tourist arrivals from China is an upside risk to growth. The ongoing economic recovery provides an opportunity to swiftly implement a comprehensive set of reforms to reduce fiscal, debt, and external vulnerabilities, and strengthen economic resilience. The report recommends that financial sector policies should remain vigilant to safeguard financial stability considering the large exposure of the banking sector to the sovereign and the expiration of pandemic-related lending support schemes.
Keywords:
parliament approval; MMA authorities; staff appraisal; market in the Maldives; SARTTAC mission; government policy; Government debt management; Capital spending; Global