International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is in the midst of a post-pandemic recovery. Real GDP declined by 4.5 percent in the fiscal year ending September 2022 due to lower fisheries production arising from the sale of a fishing vessel by a domestic operator. Growth is expected to strengthen to 3 percent over FY2023-24 as performance in the fisheries sector improves, with construction activity supported by the resumption of donor-financed projects and preparations for the 2024 Micronesian Games. Inflation is expected to moderate as commodity prices ease and supply disruptions recede. The current account surplus is expected to narrow further as coronavirus disease-related grants expire, though improved export performance is expected to lead to a narrowing of the trade deficit. The medium-term outlook is contingent on the successful renewal of the Compact of Free Association agreement with the United States. A new agreement would strengthen the RMI’s fiscal and external positions while in its absence, the fiscal and current account balances are expected to slip into deficit over the medium term. Risks are tilted to the downside, reflecting the RMI’s geographical isolation and vulnerability to climate change.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Strong and timely containment measures have successfully prevented a domestic COVID-19 outbreak but have also weighed on economic activity. The real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 3.3 percent in FY2020 and is projected to further decline by another 1.5 percent in FY 2021 due to continued travel restrictions. Economic activity is expected to pick up in FY2022, as COVID-related restrictions will be relaxed gradually. The government is currently negotiating the renewal of Compact of Free Association (COFA) financial provisions with the United States, but terms remain uncertain. The government is considering to repeal the SOV Act and a bill on establishing a Digital Economic Zone was submitted to the Parliament recently.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlight that growth in the Marshallese economy is estimated to have accelerated to about 3.5 percent in FY2017 (ending September 30) with a strong pick-up in fisheries and construction, with the latter owing to the resumption of infrastructure projects. Consumer prices started to rise again in mid-2017, with annual consumer price index inflation at 1.1 percent in 2017Q4. Growth is expected to remain robust at about 2.5 percent in FY2018 and about 1.5 percent over the medium term, underpinned by further increases in infrastructure spending. Inflation is expected to rise gradually to about 2 percent over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) pressures on the Republic of the Marshall Island (RMI). RMI’s two banks currently have access to the US financial system. The Bank of the Marshall Islands is a domestic financial institution providing banking services to a substantial portion of the population and operates five branches throughout RMI, including on the Kwajalein Atoll. RMI, through the Trust Company of the Marshall Islands, provides offshore corporate and maritime registry services. Weak implementation of the anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework by the authorities contributes to CBR pressures in RMI. The termination of BOMI’s CBR with First Hawaiian Bank would be expected to have significant negative economic repercussions without alternative arrangements. The RMI authorities are strengthening the effectiveness of the AML/CFT framework. Additional steps should be taken to further lower the risk of losing the last US dollar CBR. Once the national risk assessment is completed, an action plan should be developed to address the identified risks.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of the Marshall Islands is estimated to have expanded by about 0.5 percent in FY2015 (ending September 30), as the fishery sector recovered. Following a moderate inflation of 1.1 percent in FY2014, headline inflation dropped to –2.2 percent in FY2015 amid falling oil and utility prices. The fiscal balance is estimated to have recorded a surplus of about 3 percent of GDP in FY2014–15, owing to record-high fishing license fees. Growth is expected to rise to about 1.5 percent and inflation to about 0.5 percent in FY2016, as the effects of the drought in earlier 2016 are offset by the resumption of infrastructure projects.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Informational Annex highlights the Marshall Islands’ existing tax system’s inability to raise additional revenue, discouragement of private investment, and inequitability. Careful consideration needs to be given to the potential of a comprehensive tax reform program, including strengthening tax administration, for raising additional revenue while supporting the private sector. Many state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are a drain on public finances, and their unreliable or costly services undermine private sector development. To improve their performance, reforms are needed to strengthen efficiency, better delineate commercial and noncommercial services, and introduce tariff systems that better reflect cost of services. In areas where SOEs provide purely commercial services, divestment should be considered.
The economy of the Republic of the Marshall Islands has experienced a strong recovery with a 5.2 percent growth in 2010 following strong improvement in the fisheries sector and a moderate recovery in exports. The financial sector remained focused on consumer lending and contributed little to overall economic growth. Although the financial sector remained profitable, much of the rapid growth in credit has been in consumer loans. The authorities are monitoring high levels of household debt and intend to begin work on strengthening the regulatory framework.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of the Marshall Islands is on a path to recovery. A gradual expansion with growth reaching 0.5 percent in 2010 is supported by further growth in the fish processing industry and additional foreign grant assistance. Rising prices could stoke inflation and stifle domestic demand. Executive Directors have encouraged the authorities to continue to strengthen the statistical base, especially the coverage and timeliness of fiscal and balance of payments data, in order to improve policy analysis and decision-making.