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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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  • Kyrgyz Republic x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Kyrgyz economy grew strongly in 2023, led by construction and trade, despite the challenging regional environment. Tax revenue mobilization improved, and public debt declined. Headline inflation fell from 14.7 percent in December 2022 to 7.3 percent in December 2023, supported by a marked reduction in food and fuel inflation, but demand pressures have kept core inflation elevated. The official current account deficit has remained significant due to the decline in net remittance inflows, lower gold exports, and unrecorded re-exports. Output is expected to grow at its potential rate of 4 percent in the medium term, inflation decline to mid-single digits, and public debt remain contained. Current favorable macroeconomic conditions present a window of opportunity to strengthen the policy framework and raise growth prospects through structural reforms. The priorities are strengthening governance, including management and privatization of state-owned enterprises, enhancing competition, reforming the electricity sector, and strengthening social safety nets.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; Kyrgyz authorities; policy recommendation; January monetary policy meeting; headline inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper undertakes a detailed analysis of the inflation dynamics and its determinants in the Kyrgyz Republic to shed light on the unprecedented inflationary surge since 2021. It employs two complementary methodologies to model a complex interplay between domestic and global factors, and policy variables. The paper constructs a new comprehensive measure of inflation expectations, encompassing both adaptive and forward-looking components, and as an additional novelty introduces external variables to the Phillips curve framework. The empirical analysis suggests that in addition to global food prices, which have historically driven inflation in the country, the role of domestic factors have become more prominent. On the other hand, the paper finds a much stronger contribution of liquidity conditions to inflation. This suggests a disconnect between policy interest rates and market liquidity, which needs to be addressed for better functioning of monetary policy transmission. The main policy implication is that to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy and support National Bank of Kyrgyz Republic’s intended transition to an inflation-targeting framework, excess liquidity needs to be drained and brought in conformity with the policy rate. This will require discontinuation of central bank’s participation in the domestic gold market, which is the main source of liquidity injections.
Keywords:
frontier analysis; dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic; trade fragmentation; inflation expectation; Kyrgyz export; Inflation; Value-added tax; Income and capital gains taxes; Personal income tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic has shown resilience to the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and is estimated to have grown by 5.5 percent in 2022, driven by gold production, trade, transportation, and agriculture. Strong output growth in 2022 was a positive surprise, but elevated inflation remains persistent, the current account and fiscal deficits have widened, international reserves have declined, and poverty has increased. The banking system is healthy, but heightened risks call for vigilance. The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic should monitor pockets of vulnerabilities and be ready to provide liquidity support to solvent banks as needed. Governance reforms, such as improving management of state-owned enterprises, strengthening regulations, and combating corruption would support the business climate and growth prospects. Early action on climate change would strengthen long-term resilience of the economy.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses governance challenges in the Kyrgyz Republic. This paper aims to assess various aspects of governance in the Kyrgyz Republic and identify some of the key challenges in this area. Governance reforms in the Kyrgyz Republic can leverage linkages to the global economy and structural transformation to deliver higher and more inclusive growth. Combating corruption and strengthening governance, including of state-owned enterprises and public finances, and improving the regulatory environment and the anti-corruption; and Anti-money Laundering and Combating Financial Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework, are critical steps to improve the business climate and promote private sector-led growth. Reforms in these areas have a significant potential to increase efficiency of allocation of public resources and the delivery of public services. The IMF’s analytical work has shown that governance reforms could raise the country’s growth rates by about 1.2 percentage points per year. Strengthening control of corruption and regulatory quality, reforming state-owned enterprises, and enhancing transparency and accountability of the public sector are important priorities to pursue.
Keywords:
climate change prospects in the Kyrgyz Republic; poverty in the Kyrgyz republic; developments in poverty; inclusion indicator; climate change policy; SSNS poverty mitigation effect; poverty rates in the Kyrgyz Republic; Climate change; Social assistance spending; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Global; Central Asia; Middle East and Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia