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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores effects of social unrest in Guatemala. The paper estimates the effects of social unrest on Guatemala’s economy from 2001 to 2023, using the monthly Reported Social Unrest Index as a measure of social unrest. The estimations of the empirical model suggest no effects of social unrest episodes on the main external sector variables. The empirical evidence suggests little to no impact of social unrest in Guatemala. Contrary to Hadzi-Vaskov et al. (2023), the analysis of the effects of social unrest in Guatemala suggests that the effects on the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors are mild, limited, and temporary if not negligible. On the one hand, the lack of cross-country dimensionality is a limitation of our analysis, but on the other hand, exploiting monthly data allows us to disentangle unrest episode effects at higher frequencies than other papers in the literature. Overall, the results are robust to different specifications; the set of controls is extensive and includes controls for future social unrest shocks autocorrelations. The results suggest that Guatemala is resilient to unrest shocks at business-cycle frequencies, even of considerable magnitude.
Keywords:
social spending efficiency; remittance inflow; investment agenda; government expenditure gap; Guatemala's economy; Labor force participation; Gender inequality; Remittances; Women; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses unravelling Panama’s large unemployment fluctuations. Panama’s labor force and employment have increased remarkably over the last decades. The rapid labor force growth was driven by a combination of demographic and social transformations. The increase in the labor force participation rate was the result of rising female labor force participation. Panama’s income convergence in the 25 years preceding the Pandemic was in large part the result of an increase in the employment to population rate. Convergence can either result from an increase in the employment rate relative to that in the US, or from faster labor productivity growth. In the case of Panama, about three quarters of the reduction in the income differential with the US was driven by an increase in the employment to population rate, and only one quarter was the result of faster labor productivity growth. Going forward, the increase in the employment to population ratio is likely to be slower and, for income convergence to continue, productivity growth will need to accelerate. The demographic transition has largely run its course as population growth is projected to keep declining and the share of the working-age population is expected to decrease in the next decades.
Keywords:
B. Dollarized economy; labor market market trend; D. labor force; E. building RESILIENCE; unemployment fluctuation; Climate change; Deposit insurance; Labor force; Natural disasters; Financial safety nets; Caribbean; Central America; Global; South America; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritius: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on improving revenue mobilization in Mauritius and assessing the potential and reform options. The tax gap in Mauritius is estimated at 5.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), at the top end of tax gaps of its peers. Both domestic and international taxation reforms could help narrow the gap. Reforming the personal income tax (PIT) and the value added tax (VAT) could altogether yield 3 percent of GDP in additional tax revenue. This could be achieved by lowering PIT thresholds, while increasing the top rates, and streamlining VAT exemptions. The expected implementation of the global minimum tax on corporations internationally provides an opportunity to reconsider the tax policy approach to investment promotion in Mauritius. A desirable strategy for Mauritius would be to move away from the generous benefits offered, including tax holidays, toward a more neutral taxation of investments. While there is potential to mobilize additional revenue through tax reforms, care should be taken that vulnerable households are protected, including through compensatory social spending.
Keywords:
gender equality indicator; reform option; revenue collection; tax revenue in Mauritius; parental leave legislation; Personal income tax; Gender inequality; Women; Tax gap; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper aims to identify key reforms to accelerate Qatar’s economic transformation, estimate their impact, and shed light on the design of a comprehensive reform agenda. This paper starts by taking stock of Qatar’s progress in key reforms so far, identifying areas for further improvement, proposing structural reform measures, estimating the impact of key proposed reforms, and providing principles on the prioritization and sequencing of reforms. Qatar’s state-led, hydrocarbon intensive growth model has delivered rapid growth and substantial improvements in living standards over the past several decades. Guided by the National Vision 2030, an economic transformation is underway toward a more dynamic, diversified, knowledge-based, sustainable, and private sector-led growth model. The paper finds that labor market reforms could bring substantial benefits, particularly reforms related to increasing the share of skilled foreign workers. Certain reforms to further improve the business environment, such as improving access to finance, could also have large growth impact. A comprehensive, well-integrated, and properly sequenced reform package to exploit complementarities across reforms could boost Qatar’s potential growth significantly.
Keywords:
FIFA World cup; International Monetary Fund Washington, d.c; World Cup contribution; labor market dynamics; key reform; Labor market reforms; Labor force participation; Women; Climate finance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines macroeconomic impact of migration in Australia. Migration in Australia has historically been a significant source of population growth, with a third of the population born overseas. Migration is set to become even more important as the population natural growth rate declines. Australia attracts some of the best-educated migrants to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries who are mostly skilled workers and students, with high labor force participation rates and low unemployment. Disentangling macroeconomic effects of migration from drivers of migration is challenging, but within Australia, migration surges have historically been associated with higher growth and favorable labor market outcomes, with negligible price pressures except in the housing market. Cross-country analysis using instrumental variables confirms a positive impact of migration on macroeconomic outcomes—output, employment, and productivity—without significant inflationary impact. While housing affordability is impacted at the margin, this could represent structural supply shortages and would be best addressed by boosting supply.
Keywords:
inflow shock; labor market outcome; I. Effects of Migration shock; macroeconomic outcome; labour outcome; Migration; Labor force participation; Population growth; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the Central Bank of Armenia’s (CBA) monetary policy framework. It discusses the CBA’s track record with inflation targeting; describes the risk-based approach to price stability, offering insights on its potential benefits, while cautioning of likely pitfalls and highlighting the clear challenges for its operationalization in Armenia’s context; and emphasizes areas in which the monetary policy framework needs to strengthen further to ensure its effectiveness, especially should the new monetary policy approach be fully implemented. Enhancements in the CBA’s monetary policy framework should be guided by best principles. Publishing a comprehensive expert assessment of CBA’s monetary policy framework will guide the reforms and raise the credibility of the enhanced framework. While such enhancements to the monetary policy framework are being put in place, an operationalization of the risk management approach to price stability may present important challenges. The communication strategy should not only detail the decision-making process, but also strengthen the explanation of how policy will respond if risks materialize.
Keywords:
Armenia's monetary policy framework; inflation targeting track record; I. social assistance program; benefit incidence; IMF staff calculation; impact of program; family benefit Program; Social assistance spending; Monetary policy frameworks; Maternity and childcare benefit spending; Total factor productivity; Inflation targeting; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mexico: Selected Issues