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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Iran, Islamic Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iraq: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses Iraq’s national pension system by examining the fiscal burden of budget-financed pensions and providing a sustainability analysis of the contributory pension scheme for public sector workers. It also outlines reform options that can assist the authorities in containing the fiscal burden of the pension system, improving its adequacy, and reducing labor market distortions to remove barriers to private sector growth. The fiscal costs of budget-financed pension schemes are expected to remain elevated. A well-crafted transition plan will be key to the success of pension reforms. A gradual transition to a system with rules that are in line with international social security standards and best practices will loosen political economy constraints. Ensuring that the reform has the buy-in of a large group of stakeholders across the bureaucracy, political leadership and employees will increase credibility and protect it from political pressures during electoral cycles.
Keywords:
electricity sector; gains from Reform; title page; demand management; supply-demand gap; Pension spending; Pensions; Electricity; Public sector; Retirement; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iraq: 2019 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring highlights that Iraq’s social conditions remain harsh following the war with ISIS, with slow progress at reconstruction, weak public services and a lack of job opportunities. In the absence of policy changes, a widening budget deficit is expected to divert resources away from essential investment to rebuild the country and improve public services, while eroding reserves and posing risks to medium-term sustainability. Expenditure rigidities and limited fiscal buffers imply a significant vulnerability to oil price shocks in a context of volatile prices. The fiscal and external positions are expected to continue to deteriorate over the medium term absent policy changes—with reserves falling below adequate levels and fiscal buffers eroded. In a context of highly volatile oil prices, the major risk to the outlook is a fall in oil prices which would lower exports and budgetary revenues, leading to an even sharper decline in reserves or higher public debt. Geopolitical tensions, the potential for social unrest in a context of weak public services and lack of progress in combatting corruption pose further risks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; CBI governance; price; face challenge; debt; core banking systems; government debt; price differential; government of Iraq; Oil prices; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the development of domestic government securities market in Iran. The Iranian authorities have intensified efforts to develop a domestic government securities market. The Debt Management Office is fully staffed with front-mid-back office functions. An electronic issuance system and effective custody and settlement systems are in place. A public debt law that identifies the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s role as the sole issuer of government securities and requires the preparation and publication of a medium-term debt management strategy, annual borrowing program, and publication of debt and asset data would enhance transparency and provide investors greater assurance about the government’s capacity to repay debt and ultimately lower borrowing costs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; export; Iran; oil export; securities; pay; CFT framework; Iran's export competitiveness; anti-corruption framework; exports to Europe; government securities issuance; Women; Government securities; Exports; Corruption; Securities markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Iran: 2018 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Iran
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Iran is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2017/18. In the first half of 2017/18, recovery broadened to the non-oil sector, aided by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and a recovery in construction and services activity. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in the first half of 2017/18, but remained particularly high for youth and women. Inflation averaged 9.9 percent during the first 11 months of 2017/18 aided by moderation in food prices and stable administered prices. Real GDP growth is expected to ease to 4 percent in 2018/19 and is forecast to average 4.5 percent over the medium-term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Iran; growth; rate; exchange rate; CBI bill; banking system; balance of payments data; CBI lending; IMF staff calculation; liquidity growth; Oil; gas and mining taxes; External sector statistics; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Iran: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Iran
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights a rebound in economic growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran over the course of 2016–17 based on higher oil production. Real GDP grew 7.4 percent in the first half of 2016–17, rebounding from the 2015–16 recession. However, growth in the non-oil sector averaged 0.9 percent, despite having picked up in the second quarter, reflecting continued difficulties in access to financing and domestic financial sector and structural weaknesses. Growth is projected to stabilize at 4.5 percent over the medium term as the recovery broadens. The current account is forecast to remain in surplus as higher exports offset the pickup in imports related to investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Iran; reserve asset; fund; arrears; reserve asset position; fund TA; target inflation range; payment commitment; government arrears; aid job creation; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Oil; gas and mining taxes; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes impediments to correspondent banking with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even though international nuclear sanctions were lifted January 16, 2016, Iranian banks face protracted difficulties in reentering the international financial system through correspondent relationships with global banks. Significant challenges continue to prevent Iranian banks from fully reconnecting with global banks. These challenges relate mostly to remaining sanctions from the United States; the regulatory enforcement environment; and significant deficiencies in Iran’s Anti–Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism framework, including Iranian companies’ lack of transparency. Domestic policy reforms can potentially facilitate reconnection to non-US global banks.
Keywords:
ISCR;