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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guiné-Bissau: Sexta Avaliação Ao Abrigo Da Facilidade De Crédito Alargado; Pedido De Dispensa Do Cumprimento De Critérios De Desempenho; E Avaliação Das Garantias De Financiamento-Comunicado de Imprensa; Relatório do Corpo Técnico; E Declaração Do Administrador Para a Guiné-Bissau
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
A Guiné-Bissau continua a enfrentar conjunturas internas e internacionais muito desafiadoras. Continuam a fazer-se sentir choques nos termos de troca, ao mesmo tempo que o aumento da restritividade das condições financeiras na região tem provocado uma subida acentuada dos custos dos empréstimos. Desde a crise política, em dezembro de 2023, a tensão social subjacente tem-se mantido elevada. As próximas eleições legislativas terão lugar a 24 de novembro de 2024. Apesar destes desafios, as autoridades têm mantido a estabilidade política e económica. A campanha de exportação de castanha-de-caju tem avançado ordeiramente. Prevê-se que o crescimento recupere, mas os riscos para as perspetivas continuam a exibir uma tendência negativa.
Keywords:
Atrasados; Serviço da dívida.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea-Bissau: Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Guinea-Bissau’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and financing assurances review. The authorities’ commitment to a range of challenging policy reforms is starting to show some results. They should persevere with their ambitious structural reform agenda to improve domestic revenue mobilization, strengthen expenditure controls, and enhance governance. Economic growth is expected to reach 5 percent in 2024, while inflation should slow to 4.2 percent compared to 7.2 percent in 2023. However, the economic outlook remains subject to significant near-term risks. Fiscal consolidation remains critical to reduce vulnerabilities and ensure debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. This should be underpinned by strict rationalization of nonpriority expenditure and revenue mobilization. The authorities are implementing structural reforms which are pivotal to the program’s success. Urgent actions should be taken to mitigate fiscal risks from the public utility company. The authorities should also continue advancing the disengagement of the undercapitalized bank, including through contingency planning.
Keywords:
Bissau-Guinean authority; expenditure prioritization; policy reform; Guinea-Bissau authorities; Policy discussion; government's share; headline inflation; Arrears; Debt service; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine: Rapport des services du FMI sur les politiques communes des pays membres-Communiqué de presse; Rapport du personnel; et déclaration du Directeur exécutif de l’Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
L’UEMOA s’est montrée résiliente face à de forts chocs négatifs, parvenant à garder une croissance forte, tandis que l’inflation est récemment revenue dans sa fourchette cible. Toutefois, des pressions budgétaires et extérieures persistantes — dues à des besoins de financement accrus pendant une période d’accès limité aux marchés de capitaux internationaux — ont pesé sur la liquidité et fortement entamé les réserves ces dernières années. Le resserrement de la politique monétaire opéré par la BCEAO et l’augmentation des financements extérieurs enregistrée ces dernières semaines ont contribué à l'amélioration des perspectives des réserves, mais celles-ci demeurent inférieures aux niveaux adéquats.
Keywords:
la lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux et le financement du terrorisme ; (LBC/FT); Crédit; Crime; Politique et analyse du secteur financier ; la stabilité du secteur financier ; Consolidation budgétaire ; Politique budgétaire; Organisation internationale; Politique monétaire; Argent; Dette publique.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guiné-Bissau: Quarta e Quinta Avaliações ao abrigo do acordo de Facilidade de Crédito Alargado e pedidos de reescalonamento do acesso, dispensa do cumprimento dos critérios de desempenho, Avaliações dos critérios de desmpdos e Avaliações das garantias de financiamento
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Em dezembro de 2023, uma crise política provocou a demissão do Governo anterior e a dissolução do Parlamento. O novo governo, nomeado no final de dezembro de 2023, retomou os fortes compromissos do programa e implementou ações corretivas para resolver as derrapagens políticas. O crescimento deverá recuperar-se em 2024, mas a conjuntura externa continua a ser extremamente difícil. A inflação deverá ser mais elevada após a suspensão dos subsídios ao arroz. As políticas de curto prazo estão orientadas para apoiar a campanha de exportação de caju, porém os riscos para as perspetivas continuam a exibir uma tendência negativa.
Keywords:
Derrapagem de políticas; Discussão de políticas; compromisso inabalável; Governo da Guiné-Bissau; choque de termos de troca; política de transparência do FMI; Crédito; Atrasados; Bancos comerciais; Empréstimos; Global; África Ocidental.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea-Bissau: Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests For Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Guinea-Bissau’s Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Growth is projected to recover in 2024, but the external environment remains extremely challenging. Inflation is projected to be higher after the suspension of rice subsidies. The near-term policies are geared toward supporting the cashew export campaign, but the risks to the outlook remain tilted toward the downside. The successful implementation of the fiscal consolidation strategy is key to reduce vulnerabilities and bring down the high level of public debt. Mobilizing revenue is essential, particularly through the reduction of tax expenditures, improvements in tax administration and the broadening of the tax base. The government is firmly committed to implementing the policies underpinning the IMF supported program. The authorities’ near-term priority is to maintain fiscal discipline and accelerate structural reforms to strengthen institutions and improve governance.
Keywords:
policy slippage; Policy discussion; unwavering commitment; Bissau-Guinean government; terms-of-trade shock; IMF's transparency policy; Credit; Arrears; Commercial banks; Loans; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on securing fiscal discipline and credibility in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework Pact—is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability, while promoting access to lower cost financing and rebuilding fiscal buffers. Members’ adjustment plans should emphasize domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure, notably the wage bill. In order to enhance fiscal credibility, and maximize prospects for debt sustainability, financial stability and external viability, it is essential and urgent to reintroduce regional fiscal rules at the original ceilings—3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) for deficit and 70 percent GDP for debt. It is also essential to implement a consistent definition of fiscal indicators across the region, avoiding carve-outs for particular spending items. In order to secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is critical to establish effective mechanisms for assessment, accountability, and enforcement, including by defining a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses, as well as building an effective communication strategy.
Keywords:
deficit ceiling; climate adaption; WAEMU level; WAEMU population; WAEMU lag; Gender inequality; Climate change; Agricultural commodities; Women; Securities; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa