International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses Ireland’s report on Banking Supervision. Supervision of less significant institutions is largely effective in Ireland. The Central Bank’s supervisory approach to LSIs is intrusive and well-developed supervisory tools are appropriately applied. The prudential regulation of banks has improved greatly since the 2016 Financial System Assessment Program. The EU framework has largely managed to embrace international regulatory reforms, following up on the causes of the Global Financial Crisis. The banking supervision has been tested by severe headwinds, with the final outcomes still in play. Supervision went through a period of major challenges for the economy and the financial system, namely from Brexit and the pandemic. The continued effectiveness of banking supervision in Ireland will depend on its success in solving several complicated problems. This note provides the main recommendations to enhance the supervision of the banking activities conducted in Ireland with a direct bearing on its financial stability.
This Selected Issues paper investigates the direct and indirect exposure of the Czech Republic to these external risks. The Czech Republic is a small open economy that has become increasingly reliant on export-driven growth over the last three decades. Domestic value-added in foreign exports as a share of gross exports in the Czech Republic is higher than the average share of the European Union 28. Services have a relatively low contribution to value-added in gross exports. Given the high integration of the Czech Republic into global value chains, it is crucial to take supply chain linkages into account when assessing the impact of trade shocks. The exposure to Germany is even more pronounced at the sectoral level. Manufacturing of machinery and transportation vehicles account for a large share of exports and imports in the Czech Republic. Although the impact of the US-China trade disputes on the Czech Republic would likely be limited, a hard Brexit scenario or lower demand in Germany could have sizable effects.
The United Kingdom is set to exit the European Union in March 2019. It is now in the process of negotiating its withdrawal from the EU. Once an agreement is reached, there will be an implementation period through the end of 2020. Complex issues still remain to be resolved, including the future status of the land border with Ireland. Growth over the past year has been moderate. The post-referendum depreciation caused an increase in inflation, depressing private consumption. Business investment growth has been constrained by protracted uncertainty about the future trade regime and potential increases in trading costs. Nonetheless, slack in the economy is limited as weaker demand is matched by slower supply growth. Growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace, conditional on a smooth Brexit transition and some recovery in labor productivity. A key downside risk is an exit