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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Ecuador’s Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The authorities implemented swift and bold measures in early 2024 to address the fiscal and liquidity challenges and requested a 48-month EFF arrangement of SDR 3 billion to support their policy plans and advance an ambitious structural reform agenda. IMF estimates that IMF resources are needed to close a financing gap of about US$4 billion during the program period, after factoring in an ambitious and large fiscal plan, financial support from international financial institutions and official bilateral partners, and renewed access to international capital markets. The baseline scenario under the program is, however, subject to substantive risks, stemming from both external and domestic factors. IMF assesses that the policy program provides a reasonably strong prospect of success, amid broad support to the main objectives of the EFF arrangement, and strong commitment and capacity by the authorities to take measures to ensure its successful implementation.
Keywords:
EFF arrangement; financing strategy; reform agenda; reform sequencing; peak fund exposure; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2020 Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Ecuador’s Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional (EPE) Access under the 2020 Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The EPE report finds that the EFF program achieved its primary objective of restoring macroeconomic stability against the backdrop of a historic economic downturn. Most of the program conditionality was eventually implemented, despite some delays to fiscal and structural reforms. The authorities strengthened fiscal buffers, taking advantage of higher oil prices. Fiscal structural reforms comprehensively revamped Ecuador’s fiscal framework, although their successful implementation will hinge on building and retaining institutional capacity. The report also finds that extensive technical assistance provided to the authorities has helped to strengthen capacity in critical areas, especially fiscal accounting. The report also finds that extensive technical assistance provided to the authorities has helped to strengthen capacity in critical areas, especially fiscal accounting. Ultimately, reform efforts will need to be reinvigorated to ensure fiscal sustainability and restore market access. Finally, the EPE finds that Fund policies and procedures for financing under exceptional access were followed.
Keywords:
EFF arrangement; dollarization regime; EFF program; fund policy; EFF approval; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Fiscal consolidation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses financial system stability assessment (FSSA) in Ecuador. Banks and credit cooperatives dominate Ecuador’s financial system. While dollarization provides an important anchor for the Ecuadorean economy, systemic liquidity risks are high due to the limited capacity of the central bank to provide liquidity. The financial sector is overall resilient to adverse macrofinancial shocks but some institutions have meaningful solvency and liquidity vulnerabilities. To preserve confidence it is key to enhance capitalization, promptly recognize loan losses, and address unviable institutions. The FSSA concluded that institutional framework for financial sector oversight is complex, uncoordinated, and prone to political intervention. Reforms are needed to enhance supervisory independence, prioritize safety and soundness; separate prudential supervision from other functions, and substantially strengthen the supervisory approach. The macroprudential framework needs further progress by developing stronger financial sector-wide analytical capacity, improving information sharing and coordination, and clarifying the roles between multiple agencies.
Keywords:
B. bank solvency stress tests; liquidity fund; World Bank FSAP mission; emergency liquidity assistance facility; lender-of-last resort function; liquidity vulnerability; liquidity condition; liquidity analysis; Credit; Financial Sector Assessment Program; State-owned banks; Loans; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic recovery is ongoing. Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.7 percent in 2022, slightly lower than expected in the last review due to the protests-related disruptions in June and slower growth in trading partners. Inflationary pressures have risen, driven by higher food and transport prices and non-tradeable services, with the headline inflation expected to reach 3.8 percent yoy at end-2022. Tighter financing conditions for all EMs, and an increasingly challenging domestic political environment sharply increased spreads and postponed international market access. The government remains committed to the Fund-supported program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of SDR 4,615 million (661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) that was approved by the IMF Executive Board on September 30, 2020. Upon completion of the Sixth and final Review under the EFF-supported program—the first IMF program Ecuador will have completed in more than two decades— an additional SDR 497 million (about $700 million) would be made available.
Keywords:
healthcare obligation; healthcare expenditure; audit result; EFF arrangement; IMF program Ecuador; Energy subsidies; Fiscal stance; Oil; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Ecuador’s Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. Ecuador’s EFF-supported economic program aims to stabilize the economy, ensure fiscal and debt sustainability, expand the coverage of social assistance programs to protect the vulnerable, promote a transparent management of public resources, and lay foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth. The economy rebounded more strongly than expected in 2021 at 4.2 percent, bolstered by a well-executed vaccination campaign that allowed for a steady reopening of the economy. The recovery will continue in 2022, but at a more moderate pace of 2.9 percent. Inflationary pressures, mostly due to higher commodity prices, are expected to rise. The Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver of nonobservance of the end-December 2021 performance criterion on the overall balance of the budgetary central government and the oil derivatives financing account based on the corrective actions the authorities have already taken and have committed to take. Continued improvement in public financial management and advances in transparency and anti-corruption would strengthen efficiency and accountability of the public sector.
Keywords:
healthcare audit; EFF arrangement; IDB bond guarantee; oil derivatives financing account; IMF's transparency policy; government support; Oil prices; Public sector; Auditing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
deposit rate; policy option; D. policy implication; employment data; BCE balance sheet; Climate change; Natural disasters; Deposit rates; COVID-19; Labor markets; Global; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: 2021 Article IV Consultation, Second and Third Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The new administration has committed to continue with the Fund-supported Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of SDR 4,615 million (661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) that was approved by the IMF Executive Board on September 30, 2020. The authorities’ objectives under the program are to ensure an environmental-friendly growth with high quality jobs, promote a transparent management of public resources, and ensure equity in the conduct of fiscally sustainable policies. Upon the completion of the Second and Third Reviews under the EFF, an additional SDR $568 million would be made available.
Keywords:
September employment survey data; revenue administration measure; staff appraisal; reform package; dollarization regime; Arrears; Oil prices; Oil; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Request for an Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Panama
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
While Panama has been the most dynamic economy in Latin America over the last three decades (growing 6 percent on average), its strength is being tested by the COVID-19 global pandemic. Panama is a service-based economy that is highly integrated in the world economy and exposed to extreme shocks during the pandemic.