The U.S. economy is recovering from a financial crisis, but remains vulnerable to shocks. Executive Directors welcomed health care reform, fiscal stabilization, and the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) assessment, which acknowledged that the financial system has strengthened. Directors underscored the risks in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, revitalizing private securitization, and reforms to the housing finance system, including government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). Directors appreciated the United States for promoting multilateral economic management. Directors assessed that U.S. economic policy could help secure global growth and stability through fiscal consolidation, which could reduce account deficit, and strengthen the financial sector.
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that Sweden has been hit hard by the global financial crisis. Two of its banks built up large exposures in the Baltics that significantly increased loan losses beyond normal recessionary levels. In response to the crisis, the authorities have taken wide-ranging measures to stabilize the financial system and support demand. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ prompt and appropriate policy responses, which have allayed immediate concerns with financial sector stability, and have helped cushion domestic demand.
This Selected Issues paper for the Philippines has been prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. Spillovers have been particularly prominent for countries with financial systems with high foreign bank participation, large exposures to ailing global financial institutions and structured products, and high external liabilities, including through wholesale funding. With a nascent capital market, the economy’s exposure to securitization and off-balance sheet activities is limited. The presence of foreign capital remains low in both the capital market and the banking system.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of globalization on United Kingdom’s inflation and relative prices over the last decade. The IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the relative importance of the various factors argued to have influenced the evolution of inflation and relative prices over this period. The key result is the significantly different impact of the shock on relative prices in the United Kingdom compared with the United States and the Euro area.
This Selected Issues paper for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands underlies recent fiscal developments. Fiscal deterioration during economic slowdowns is not unusual and can be justified on economic grounds. Although the real spending ceilings were largely adhered to, procyclical elements embedded in the fiscal framework contributed to the structural fiscal deterioration. Sharp declines in the revenues from corporate profit taxes and social security contributions, as well as increases in social security spending, were largely responsible for the cyclical deterioration.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the conduct of fiscal policy in Spain, made topical by the entry into effect of the Budgetary Stability Law in 2003. This law, along with the new permanent financing arrangements with the subnational levels of government, provides a new institutional and legal framework for fiscal policy. These innovations aim to lock in the gains in fiscal consolidation represented by the achievement of the goals of the Stability and Growth Pact in 2001.
This Selected Issues paper on Sweden analyzes possible adjustments to the fiscal framework that the authorities may wish to consider. The paper starts with a brief description of Sweden’s fiscal framework, followed by an assessment of the framework’s strengths and weaknesses. The scope for stabilization policy in Sweden is analyzed. The paper describes the Johansson commission’s recommendations and puts forth alternative options. A strategy that would entail marginal adjustments to the framework is also proposed.
A series of adverse supply and demand shocks have brought the euro area’s three-year expansion to a virtual standstill. Buoyant labor markets, which have been the hallmark of the recovery since 1997, have succumbed only gradually to the slowing of output growth. The slowdown has been pervasive throughout the area, albeit unevenly and with different cyclical implications. Recent travails notwithstanding, the second half of the 1990s saw a significant improvement in the macroeconomic performance of the euro area.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the potential output and the associated nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment in the euro area. The study presents a conceptual framework for analyzing currency movements, and highlights the transmission of import price shocks on consumer prices. The paper compares different measures of trend money growth, and analyzes the monetary conditions. The study describes the stability and growth pact, outlines a simple framework for studying fiscal policy behavior, and estimates European Union countries past cyclical fiscal policy responses to output growth fluctuations.