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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cabo Verde: Fourth Review of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and First Review of the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility and Request of Rephasing of Availability Dates-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Cabo Verde’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria, and First Review of the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and Request of Rephasing of Availability Dates. Macroeconomic performance in 2023 was strong, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.1 percent, a strong primary fiscal surplus, low inflation, and a prudent level of reserves to protect the peg. The public debt-to-GDP ratio continues on a downward path, and the financial sector remains resilient. The authorities are improving the monetary and financial policy frameworks. Reforms to foster productivity and diversification underpin the authorities’ growth and climate resilience strategy. The RSF arrangement supports strong reforms in the energy-water nexus with the aim of facilitating private sector development, building the appropriate infrastructure, reducing costs, and managing the energy transition. The near-term outlook is favorable despite some downside risks. Reforms focus on climate-resilience, preserving debt sustainability, advancing strong reforms in the energy-water nexus and managing the energy transition, while targeting social spending to protect the most vulnerable from the costs of the transition. State-owned enterprises reforms are key to reducing fiscal risks, and improving inter-island connectivity is critical for competitiveness.
Keywords:
RSF arrangement; Cabo Verdean authorities; RSF reform; public debt-to-GDP ratio; climate resilience strategy; Public enterprises; Fiscal risks; Economic recession; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Pakistan: Second and Final Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Pakistan’s Second and Final Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). In order to move Pakistan from stabilization to a strong and sustainable recovery the authorities need to continue their policy and reform efforts, including strict adherence to fiscal targets while protecting the vulnerable; a market-determined exchange rate to absorb external shocks; and broadening of structural reforms to support stronger and more inclusive growth. Macroeconomic conditions have improved over the course of the program. The authorities have stabilized the energy sector’s circular debt over the course of the SBA through timely tariff adjustments and enhanced collection efforts. While these actions need to continue, it is also critical that the authorities undertake cost-side reforms to address the sector’s underlying issues and viability. Achieving strong, long-term inclusive growth and creating jobs require accelerating structural reforms and continued protection of the most vulnerable through an adequately financed Benazir Income Support Program. Priorities include advancing the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including to ensure that all SOEs fall under the new policy framework; strengthening governance and anti-corruption institutions; and continuing to build climate resilience.
Keywords:
Pakistani authorities; excl. IMF obligation; sitting government; resolute commitment; policy reform; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Colombia’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 with 10.6 percent growth led by pent-up domestic demand, notably private consumption. Around 66 percent of the population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19 as of end-February and the economy continues to reopen more fully. While GDP has already reached pre-pandemic levels, employment has trailed in its recovery and macroeconomic imbalances have emerged. Amid strong demand, supply constraints, and rising commodity prices, rising inflation exceeded the upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance range in 2021. With demand-led growth and higher import prices, the current account deficit widened to 5¾ percent of GDP. Under staff’s assumptions for the evolution of the pandemic, above-potential growth around 5½ percent is expected in 2022, led by robust household consumption and a continued recovery of investment and exports. External vulnerabilities remain elevated with high external financing needs and tighter financial conditions. External risks remain elevated and an intensification of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may impart considerable volatility in financial and commodity markets. Domestic risks are also tilted to the downside—including uncertainty around the evolution of the pandemic, political uncertainty with national elections this year, and slower implementation of the infrastructure agenda and peace accords.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; baseline price; fully-fledged inflation targeting regime; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; price revision; CPI basket; customs authorities; Inflation; Economic recovery; Public sector; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indonesia
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
As elsewhere, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to tragic loss of life and triggered a major economic downturn in Indonesia. The authorities have responded with a bold and comprehensive policy package that has successfully maintained economic and financial stability. With the recovery underway, they have begun to withdraw the exceptional support measures. Nevertheless, the pandemic has caused scarring and reinforced the need to tackle longstanding structural challenges.
Keywords:
FDI inflow; staff appraisal; portfolio inflow; balance of payments report; policy support; COVID-19; Credit; Economic recovery; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2022 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is recovering strongly as ample policy space has allowed the enaction of swift and bold policy responses to address the unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple shocks, including notably the pandemic. But the recovery remains uneven, with private consumption lagging, owing, in part, to a zero- COVID tolerance approach. The financial sector has remained resilient supported by significant buffers, strong institutional frameworks, and a well-functioning Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS). Increasing financial linkages with Mainland China bring both opportunities and challenges for growth and financial stability.
Keywords:
housing supply; article IV consultation discussion; rate of HK; improving housing affordability; C. containing housing market; GDP compilation; Housing prices; Housing; Economic recovery; Financial sector stability; External sector statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Australia
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Strong health and economic policies allowed for quick economic recovery from initial COVID-19-related lockdowns in 2020. Renewed outbreaks and lockdowns have created setbacks since mid-2021, with disproportionate impacts on some regions, sectors, and workers. Accommodative macroeconomic policies have been instrumental in cushioning the economic impact.
Keywords:
territory government; CPI expenditure weight; economic plan; employment service; monetary policy support; ABS implementation; COVID-19; Housing; Housing prices; Economic recovery; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brazil: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
recession response; COVID lockdown stringency; title page; baseline vaccination projection; vaccination path; CA adjustment; Economic recession; COVID-19; Private savings; Exports; Global