Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Topic

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Intelligence (AI) & Semantics x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of Lesotho: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper delves into few applications of machine learning (ML), with a particular application to economic forecasts in Lesotho. Amid delayed and often revised gross domestic product data, this paper explores the potential of ML to provide real-time insights into growth and inflation trends, crucial for informed policymaking. By leveraging nontraditional data and employing a variety of ML models, the paper presents a comprehensive analysis of current economic activity, evaluates the accuracy of standard statistical measures, and forecasts future inflation trends. The findings underscore the efficacy of ML in reducing prediction errors and highlight the significant role of alternative data in circumventing the limitations posed by traditional economic indicators. This paper contributes to the broader debate on the application of advanced computational techniques in economic forecasting, offering valuable insights for policymakers in Lesotho and similar countries grappling with data constraints and the need for timely economic analysis.
Keywords:
E. inflation forecasting; GDP Nowcasting result; D. GDP evaluation; C. GDP Nowcasting; ensemble Nowcasting model; Machine learning; Inflation; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Singapore highlights that following a slowdown in 2023, growth is projected to recover gradually to 2.1 percent in 2024. After reaching 6.1 percent in 2022, inflation has steadily declined to 2.7 percent in April 2024. The pace of disinflation has nonetheless been gradual, with signs of persistent price pressures including from a tight labor market. With risks to global growth now broadly balanced, downside risks to growth outlook have diminished relative to last year, but Singapore remains vulnerable to a deepening of geo-economic fragmentation. Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. The broadly neutral fiscal stance relative to 2023 will complement the tight monetary policy stance in achieving price stability, while targeted support to vulnerable households and firms will provide temporary relief from high costs of living and business. Singapore’s financial sector remains resilient with solid capital and liquidity buffers, though vigilance against pockets of vulnerabilities is warranted, including from potential systemic risks arising from the housing market. In this context, the tight macroprudential policy stance remains appropriate.
Keywords:
article IV consultation discussion; FSAP update; Singapore economy; CPI-All Items inflation; disinflation trend; Labor markets; Inflation; Artificial intelligence; Liquidity requirements; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper estimates the exchange pass-through to inflation in Singapore with a particular focus on the role of labor market conditions. The paper first finds a strong exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Singapore, after accounting for the potential endogeneity of changes in the exchange rate. Further, it uncovers that labor market tightness dampens exchange rate pass-through and therefore could weaken monetary policy transmission. Overall, the results suggest that monetary policy should be more vigilant under a tight labor market condition. Under tight market conditions, the pass-through is found to be severely weakened and more so for the service components of the consumer price index basket. Overall, our findings suggest that the exchange rate-based monetary policy serves Singapore well, but it would need to be more vigilant when the labor market is tight. The paper then draws policy implications for taming inflation under tight labor market conditions. Further, policies designed to ease structural labor market tightness could help support monetary policy to ensure price stability in Singapore. This is consistent with a recent study on the US that suggests that dealing with the inflationary pressures originating from a tight labor market would require policy actions that bring labor demand and supply into a better balance.
Keywords:
AI exposure; IMF China growth projection; China growth shock; growth slowdown; growth shock; Artificial intelligence; Exchange rate pass-through; Inflation; Labor markets; Spillovers; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Selected Issues paper focuses on productivity and growth in Peru. Firms have maintained smaller sizes to avoid the application of a profit-sharing legislation, which has resulted in lower productivity. After a decade of high economic growth averaging over 6 percent per year, potential growth has been falling since 2014. A much slower pace of investment and human has driven the decline capital accumulation, but most notably, a decline in total factor productivity growth. In line with the macroeconomic trends, firm-level productivity has worsened, and the decline has been broad-based across the economy. Special corporate tax regimes and labor legislations and regulations have created barriers to productivity growth. To raise productivity, policies will need to focus on reforming regulations that impose excessive costs to formalizing or growing a business. Down the line, introducing greater labor market flexibility would ensure that workers could transition to productive sectors of the economy and reduce labor informality.
Keywords:
El Niño shock; building RESILIENCE; B. Measuring productivity; B. artificial intelligence; total factor productivity growth; labor force complementarity; Climate change; Natural disasters; Productivity; Potential output; Artificial intelligence; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Banking Sector: Supervision and Regulation
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Banking supervision and regulation by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) remain strong. This assessment confirms the 2014 Basel Core Principles assessment that the HKMA achieves a high level of compliance with the BCPs. The Basel III framework (and related guidance) and domestic and cross-border cooperation arrangements are firmly in place. The HKMA actively contributes to the development and implementation of relevant international standards. Updating their risk based supervisory approach helped the HKMA optimize supervisory resources. The HKMA’s highly experienced supervisory staff is a key driver to achieving one of the most sophisticated levels of supervision and regulation observed in Asia and beyond.
Keywords:
People's republic of china-Hong kong special administrative region; B. banking sector structure; holding company; China banking; People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region FSAP; Bank supervision; Artificial intelligence; Commercial banks; Basel Core Principles; Bank soundness; Global; Central Asia; Asia and Pacific; External audit
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Implications of Fintech for the Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
he Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) is among the world’s major fintech hubs, well positioned to develop fintech initiatives from its traditional strengths in financial services. Key factors enabling the HKSAR to emerge as a fintech hub include its presence as an international financial center, its free-flowing talent and capital, a highly developed information and technology communication (ITC) infrastructure, and its most unique trait, a geographical and strategic advantage by proximity to the market in Mainland China.
Keywords:
People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region FSAP; banking Supervision department; Hong Kong exchange; People's republic of china-Hong kong special administrative region; banking ordinance; Fintech; Blockchain and DLT; Financial sector; Artificial intelligence; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues explores ways for strengthening the current fiscal framework in Suriname and considers options for a new fiscal anchor. The paper provides an overview of mineral natural resources and their importance for the budget. It also lays out the current framework for fiscal planning and budget execution in Suriname and discusses the analytical underpinnings of modernizing it to make it more robust. The paper also presents estimates of long-term sustainability benchmarks based on the IMF’s policy toolkit for resource-rich developing countries. Suriname’s fiscal framework can be strengthened through a fiscal anchor rooted in the non-resource primary balance. Given the size of fiscal adjustment required to bring the non-resource primary balance in line with the long-term sustainability benchmark, a substantial transition period is needed to implement it. The IMF Staff’s adjustment scenario—designed to put public debt on the downward path—closes the current gap by less than half, implying that adjustment would need to continue beyond the 5-year horizon.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Suriname; IoT data; GIMF model; GDP data; high frequency data; tariffs vis-a-vis; Current spending; Public investment spending; Fiscal governance; Natural resources; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Crisis Management and Bank Resolution Framework-Technical Note
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note on Crisis Management and Bank Resolution Framework was prepared in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). Overall, the existing institutional framework facilitates communication and coordination domestically, as well as on a cross-border basis. Information sharing and coordination among domestic regulatory authorities and with the Government is undertaken through a variety of formal mechanisms, which are supported by sound legal bases for the exchange of confidential information. There are complementary structures in place for macro- and micro-prudential supervision that contribute to the prevention and identification of problems in banks. Market-wide or bank intrinsic risk issues will be identified by macroprudential surveillance and bank supervision in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, or by other financial sector regulatory bodies. The deposit protection scheme is transparent, and trusted; however, steps should be taken to enhance efficiency of pay-outs and to ensure the scheme’s sustainability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; problem bank; contingent bank Capital Facility; financial system; resolution process; HKMA supervisor; resolution authorities; bank failure; discount window; member bank; Artificial intelligence; Bank resolution framework; Lender of last resort; Financial sector stability; Bank resolution; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision-Detailed Assessment of Observance
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Basel Core Principles (BCP) for Effective Banking Supervision Detailed Assessment Report has been prepared in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) supervises a major international financial center which was affected, though not significantly so, by the financial crisis. The HKMA is maintaining its commitment to the international regulatory reform agenda and is an early adopter of many standards. Supervisory practices, standards, and approaches are well integrated, risk based and of very high quality. There is one area in relation to the overarching legislative framework and powers which warrants further attention. The HKMA enjoys clear de facto but not de jure operational independence. There are two important cross border dimensions for Hong Kong as an international financial center. One is related to HKSAR’s significant position as a host supervisor. The second is the increasing importance of Mainland China in the current portfolios and prospects of the locally incorporated institutions, and indeed in the choice of HKSAR as a platform for overseas institutions to establish relationships with Mainland China.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; risk management; senior management; holding company; banking group; risk profile; chief executive; incorporated AIs; credit risk; interest rate; financial system; capital base; corporate governance; audit program; Artificial intelligence; Market risk; Credit risk; External audit; Capital adequacy requirements; Global