This Selected Issue Paper studies the relationship between monetary policy, financial conditions, and real activity during the current monetary policy-tightening episode in Switzerland. After a review of various channels through which monetary policy changes affect financial conditions, the paper shows that the transmission of policy rates to market rates has been swift and that the exchange rate is an important channel. The response of real activity to tightening financial conditions has remained broadly in line with past tightening episodes. The interest rate increase has influenced cash flows for households due to higher mortgage interest expenses. Higher interest rates also lead to higher rental cost for non-homeowners. Policy rate adjustments affect the average interest rates of mortgages and thus the mortgage reference interest rate, which is a factor for rent adjustments by Swiss regulation. Monetary tightening has contributed to a slowdown of private credit and house-price growth. Growth of mortgage loans, which represent 85 percent of bank lending, moderated to 2.4 percent in 2023 from 3.5 percent in 2022.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that growth is recovering gradually after slowing in 2023 in Switzerland. In order to counter risks of inflation moving to and settling at very low rates, the rate cut ahead of other central banks was appropriate. Going forward, monetary policy should remain responsive to incoming data, while taking into account international monetary policy developments. Banks have strong buffers, but vulnerabilities related to real estate persist. Ample capital buffers should be maintained, the macroprudential toolkit expanded, supply-side actions to stem pressure on the residential housing market advanced and data gaps closed. The authorities should continue to promote labor market and pension reforms to incentivize labor force participation of women, older workers, and immigrants and address labor shortages, skills gaps, and potential fiscal imbalances. The revised CO2 Act clarifies the policy framework for 2025–2030 but is less ambitious than initially proposed and might require acquiring more emissions-reduction credits from internationally. Advancing negotiations with the EU and enhancing cooperation with other key partners would mitigate uncertainty and strengthen resilience against geo-economic fragmentation risks.
This Technical Assistance report on Ghana focuses on the diagnostic mission on macro-relevant climate change statistics. Discussions were conducted during plenary and bilateral sessions with key national stakeholders representing data compilers and users to take stock of work already undertaken on environment and climate change related statistics for Ghana, ongoing capacity development initiatives with other agencies, policy needs and data gaps, and data sources. Secondary priorities including mineral and energy resource and energy statistics, as well as carbon footprints, were identified and it is expected that project participants will agree on a roadmap for their compilation during a second phase of the project after Air Emissions Accounts are compiled. The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), which is at the center of the national statistical system, will continue to coordinate the collaboration between agencies participating in this project in close consultation with the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). A technical coordinating group will include key stakeholders from the agencies participating in the plenary sessions and be chaired by the GSS and the EPA. Meetings will be held as needed.