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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Bulgarian economy has shown resilience through a succession of shocks and is achieving a soft landing. Growth slowed in 2023 to 1.8 percent driven by a decline in private investment due to uncertainty and by the unwinding of the inventory buildup of 2021–2022. Growth is expected to rebound this year thanks to the recovery in demand from key trading partners, which will spur exports and private investment, while public investment is to be supported by EU funds. Despite sustained wage and pension growth and inflationary pressures from an expansionary 2024 budget, inflation is projected to continue declining owing to the projected continued fall in global food and energy prices, but it has remained higher than in many European peers. Deep structural reforms are needed to foster higher and more inclusive growth. Addressing declining potential growth and slow income convergence requires containing the decline in the labor force, more investment, higher productivity, greater competitiveness, and further integration into global and regional value chains.
Keywords:
IMF's transparency policy; potential GDP; Policy discussion; EU grant; IMF's article; policy measure; Fiscal stance; Income; Pension spending; Wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Bulgarian pension system. The paper provides an overview of the pension system and describes measures taken in the last decade to increase its financial sustainability. It highlights how the measures taken during and after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic structurally affect the financial sustainability of the pension system. The paper also shows that the recent measures compound the long-term pressure related to an aging population. It also details policies that could contain the projected increase in pension spending. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
GVC Integration; IMF staff calculation; return on assets; GVC participation; EU country; current ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Exports; Public enterprises; Global; Europe