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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: 2023 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with the Kingdom of The Netherlands—Aruba discusses that economic activity rebounded strongly. Real gross domestic product grew by 27.6 percent in 2021 and further expanded by 7.3 percent in 2022, reinforced by the recovery of tourist arrivals following the lifting of the restrictions introduced during the pandemic. The economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2023 as the post-pandemic rebound in tourist arrivals wanes. Inflation is projected to decelerate with slowing domestic demand and lower international commodity prices. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. A steeper-than-expected global slowdown, especially in the U.S., could reduce tourist arrivals. Climate change is an ever-present risk through both rising sea levels and more volatile weather events. Domestically, risks to the outlook are largely related to the potential of insufficient fiscal adjustment. Increasing resilience to climate change is a priority. A concrete action plan for adaptation would help prioritize infrastructure investments that improve the physical resilience of low-lying areas.
Keywords:
CPI data; CPI survey; quarterly balance of payments; Aruban economy; price sample; IMF staff calculation; External sector statistics; Tourism; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Stability Diagnostic and Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Aruba highlights the financial stability diagnostic and scoping mission. The economy of Aruba is tourist dependent, which is an important source of vulnerability. The major source of risk comes from lending. Banks are increasingly exposed to the real estate market and compete with nonregulated lenders. Residential house prices have increased significantly in some regions since the start of the pandemic driven by strong demand from nonresidential buyers as well as higher construction costs due to coronavirus disease-related supply constraints. The future Financial Stability Department (FSD) is advised to develop a strategy on Macroprudential Policy (MaP). Based on the macroprudential strategy, the FSD should prepare the methodology for the introduction of the MaP instruments chosen as well as ensure the necessary preparations in terms of data collection for this purpose. The data available to the Central Bank of Aruba is sufficient for starting systemic risk monitoring, but some data gaps should be addressed. The monitoring of systemic risk and the development of macroprudential tools requires more granular, frequent, and timely data.
Keywords:
CARTAC mission; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; bank FIS; mortgage bank; bank data; c. CBA; lending portfolio; Financial sector stability; Mortgages; Commercial banks; Housing prices; Loans; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: 2021 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Supplement
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Aruba managed to contain the pandemic in the first months of the outbreak but experienced a resurgence of new infections in the summer. The economic impact of COVID-19 is particularly severe given Aruba’s high dependency on tourism. While the authorities’ swift response has helped contain the human and economic damage, it could not avoid a severe GDP contraction.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; budget proposal; staff analysis; tranche of financial support; debt sustainability risk; COVID-19; Tourism; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: Technical Assistance Report; National Accounts Review Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba focuses on the mission undertaken to assist the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in assessing and improving the national accounts. The CBS plans to recompile and disseminate the revised annual current price estimates by January 2020, and improved constant 2013 price estimates by June 2020. The mission and the Director of the CBS met with the Minister of Finance, Economic Affairs and Culture to discuss the rebased estimates and the 2020–2025 action plan. The budget, staffing, and data coordination plans of the CBS were also discussed. The Minister agreed to establishing formal data coordination agreements between the CBS and other government institutions, and on the need for the legislation and related reporting procedures to be strengthened. She also agreed to the 2020–2025 action plan to implement the Special Data Dissemination Standard for real-sector statistics, the need for benchmark and regular surveys, and to incrementally increasing the CBS budget and staffing, subject to Cabinet approval.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP-E estimate; GDP-P estimate; SUT estimate; CBS staff; estimates of the CBS; GDP series; price GDP-p; price GDP series; GDP-p estimate; CBS GDP; CBS plan; nominal GDP-E; Real sector statistics; Financial statements; Financial statistics; Price indexes; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: 2019 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba’s economic recovery continues, although at a slowing pace. The authorities have managed well the impact of the crisis in Venezuela through diversification of product markets and tourism sources. Nonetheless, a deepening of the crisis is a downside risk—mainly through a potentially sizable influx of immigrants and refugees. It is recommended to identify additional reform measures to achieve Aruba’s fiscal targets. These measures should involve a mix of revenue increases and expenditure restraint, and be prioritized, sequenced, equitable, and well-communicated to minimize implementation risks and ensure the measures’ durability. The government devised a reform agenda with fiscal consolidation as a key pillar. Additional measures are needed to achieve the authorities’ fiscal targets. The additional adjustment should contain a mix of tax reforms and expenditure rationalization. The fiscal measures in 2019 are expected to deliver a large upfront increase in revenues but it will be important to strike a balance between revenue increases and expenditure restraint in subsequent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Aruba; GDP; article IV consultation discussion; discussion; Last Article IV consultation discussion; government finance statistics; central bank; IMF staff estimate; money market rate; Tourism; Fiscal consolidation; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Technical Assistance Report-Towards a Sustainable Tax System
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Over the last decade, Aruba has faced three recessions resulting in a public debt of approximately 90 percent of GDP. Its current budget deficit needs to be reduced and Aruba should close a fiscal gap of 1.5-2 percent of GDP over the next two to three years to return to a sustainable path. Earlier this year, the authorities have introduced a crisis package, mainly by increasing the turnover taxes. This temporary tax measure should be replaced by a tax reform that will modernize and simplify the current system. The new tax system should not only raise more revenue, but also shift the tax burden away from income and profits toward consumption. The current system is not well equipped to make these changes. In replacing the crisis levy, the Government sees an opportunity to streamline the current tax system, modernize it, and make it more sustainable for the future needs of Aruba.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tax burden; withholding tax; transfer tax; turnover tax; tax rate; license fee; progressive tax; zero rating; tax system; proportional tax; indirect tax; Value-added tax; Excises; Consumption taxes; Sales tax; Personal income; Caribbean; Global