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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Discussões Sobre a Avaliação Pós-financiamento-Comunicado de Imprensa; E Relatório do Corpo Técnico
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Angola enfrentou importantes desafios em 2023, incluindo a produção e preços de petróleo mais fracos, mas o país manteve-se resiliente. No entanto, os ganhos decorrentes da consolidação orçamental foram inferiores aos previstos e a inflação aumentou. Segundo a avaliação, a capacidade de reembolso de Angola ao FMI é adequada, embora sujeita a riscos. Na eventualidade de ocorrer um cenário adverso, que inclua um choque prolongado dos preços do petróleo, os indicadores de reembolso deteriorar-se-iam, mas continuariam a ser, ainda assim, adequados.
Keywords:
Subsídios à energia; Despesa; Dívida externa; Preços do petróleo; Produção de petróleo; Preços; Produção; Dívida pública.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: 2024 First Post-Financing Assessment-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Post Financing Assessment (PFA) Consultation with Angola. Angola’s capacity to repay the IMF is adequate though subject to risks. Angola remained resilient in the face of significant challenges in 2023, including weaker oil production and prices. Spending adjustments helped contain the impact of weaker oil prices and lower production in 2023, though the gains from fiscal consolidation were lower-than-anticipated. The nonoil primary fiscal deficit (NOPFD), estimated at 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, is expected to steadily decline in the medium term on modestly improving non-oil revenues, moderately lower current and capital expenditures, and savings from fuel subsidy reform. Continued efforts on enhancing the monetary policy framework are needed to reduce inflation and support non-oil medium-term growth. Implementing broad ranging structural reforms is vital to improve business environment and maintain growth in the context of a long-term decline of the oil sector. Addressing issues related to governance, gender, and climate change remains critical to achieving economic diversification and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
anchor inflation expectation; private sector borrowing costs; oil price shock; Angola economy; inflation reduction; oil dependence; Oil prices; Oil production; Energy subsidies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Angola’s economic recovery in 2021/22 was nearly halted in 2023 by a double shock in the first half of the year, as the oil sector weakened, and the debt moratorium ended. Growth is estimated at 0.5 percent for 2023, with an estimated contraction in the oil sector of 6.1 percent and softened non-oil growth at 2.9 percent. Economic growth is projected to recover in the near-term, supported by improved oil production and the recovery in the non-oil sector. Inflation is expected to remain temporarily elevated in 2024 and to gradually decline thereafter, as the effects of the subsidy removal and the pass-through from nominal exchange rate depreciation diminish. The recent monetary policy tightening is welcomed, while further improvements to monetary operations are required, including aligning the interbank market interest rate with the announced policy rate. The central bank (BNA) and the ministry of finance should coordinate money market operations to align interbank liquidity conditions with the announced interest rate corridor while fiscal domestic financing is undertaken through medium- to long-term issuances. The BNA should also continue its transition toward an inflation-targeting framework and greater exchange rate flexibility.
Keywords:
asset declaration regime; policy priority; reducing government's footprint; inflation pressure; AFRITAC South; policy coherence; Energy subsidies; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issue paper focuses on modeling monetary policy in resource-rich economics in Angola. This paper uses an extended semistructural New Keynesian model to simulate shocks and analyze policy scenarios in Angola. The model features Angola’s oil dependence and strong linkages between the oil sector and the exchange rate. The key objectives are to develop a forward-looking framework that can model the impact of shocks on an economy calibrated to mimic Angola, and inform monetary policy discussions with the analysis of various policy trade-offs. Shocks to the oil sector influence both the cyclical and structural levels of the economy, especially given the nature of ageing oil fields in Angola. All variables in the behavioral equations are expressed as gaps, defined as percentage deviations from their trend or equilibrium levels. The simulations highlight that improving monetary policy framework and credibility can lower output cost and economic volatility during shock periods.
Keywords:
monetary policy response shock; oil price shock; monetary policy credibility; modeling monetary policy; oil sector; Gender inequality; Women; Oil sector; Oil; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Discussões sobre a primeira avaliação pós-financiamento-Comunicado de imprensa; Relatório da Equipa Técnica
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
No seguimento da estabilidade macroeconómica alcançada num contexto especialmente difícil em 2020, a recuperação que teve início em 2021 prosseguiu em 2022 favorecida pelos elevados preços do petróleo. O segundo mandato do Presidente João Lourenço, – iniciado no ano passado – centra-se na promoção da diversificação e do crescimento não petrolífero. Porém, Angola enfrenta desafios significativos em 2023, designadamente o agravamento das perspectivas para os preços do petróleo, a diminuição da produção petrolífera, um contexto externo altamente incerto e a necessidade de reverter a grande flexibilização orçamental do ano passado. Esta última será apoiada pela conclusão integral da reforma dos subsídios aos combustíveis, anunciada pelo governo em 1 de junho de 2023. A capacidade de reembolso de Angola ao FMI é adequada, embora sujeita a riscos elevados. No caso de se materializar um cenário adverso que envolva um choque prolongado dos preços do petróleo, os indicadores de reembolso deteriorar-se-ão, mas permanecerão adequados.
Keywords:
fuel subsidy reform; oil price shock; diversification plan; diversification agenda; public finance; IMF's transparency policy; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Oil sector; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: First Post-Financing Assessment Discussions-Press Release
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights first post financing assessment discussions in Angola. Successful reforms coupled by firmed oil prices supported the Angola’s economic recovery in 2021–22; however, declined oil production has led