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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 90 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Armenia, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Third Review under the Stand-by Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Armenia’s Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. On the back of high domestic and external demand, gross domestic product growth remained strong by historical standards at 8.7 percent in 2023 and is expected to moderate to a more sustainable level of around 6 percent in 2024. The SBA, which the Armenian authorities are treating as precautionary, aims to support the government’s policy and reform agenda to preserve economic and financial stability and support strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth. Fiscal policy should strike a balance between preserving macro-fiscal stability and accommodating rising spending pressures. Careful spending prioritization and decisive tax policy and revenue administration efforts will be needed to create fiscal space, including for social integration, security spending, further infrastructure development, and a healthcare overhaul. Structural reforms should focus on strengthening revenue mobilization, fiscal risk and public investment management, the Central Bank of Armenia’s supervisory framework, the employment and social assistance programs, export diversification, enhancing governance, and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; energy inflation; monetary policy stance; supervisory framework; transparency policy; security spending; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Armenia’s 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. The Armenian authorities continue to treat the SBA as precautionary. Armenia’s strong growth momentum continued through 2023. Supported by robust private consumption and investment, the economy is projected to grow by 7 percent in 2023 before moderating to 5 percent in 2024. Armenia’s economy has managed to overcome recent external shocks and faces a favorable outlook, with strong growth in the context of moderate inflation. The program performance remains broadly satisfactory. Key policy priorities include preserving macroeconomic stability, building fiscal buffers to support priority infrastructure and social spending, managing fiscal risk, enhancing the monetary policy, macroprudential, and supervisory frameworks, and strengthening economic resilience by advancing structural reforms in the labor and product markets, access to finance, and governance.
Keywords:
end-June headline inflation inflation rate; inflation expectation; Armenian authorities; priority capital; SOE ownership policy; Tax administration core functions; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the Central Bank of Armenia’s (CBA) monetary policy framework. It discusses the CBA’s track record with inflation targeting; describes the risk-based approach to price stability, offering insights on its potential benefits, while cautioning of likely pitfalls and highlighting the clear challenges for its operationalization in Armenia’s context; and emphasizes areas in which the monetary policy framework needs to strengthen further to ensure its effectiveness, especially should the new monetary policy approach be fully implemented. Enhancements in the CBA’s monetary policy framework should be guided by best principles. Publishing a comprehensive expert assessment of CBA’s monetary policy framework will guide the reforms and raise the credibility of the enhanced framework. While such enhancements to the monetary policy framework are being put in place, an operationalization of the risk management approach to price stability may present important challenges. The communication strategy should not only detail the decision-making process, but also strengthen the explanation of how policy will respond if risks materialize.
Keywords:
Armenia's monetary policy framework; inflation targeting track record; I. social assistance program; benefit incidence; IMF staff calculation; impact of program; family benefit Program; Social assistance spending; Monetary policy frameworks; Maternity and childcare benefit spending; Total factor productivity; Inflation targeting; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Residential Property Price Index Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper discusses the findings, summary and recommendations of residential property price index (RPPI) statistics technical assistance mission in the Republic of Armenia. The authorities are strongly committed to developing a publicly available RPPI for Armenia. Reliable property price indices and other indicators of real estate markets are essential for the assessment of developments and risks in property markets and understanding the linkages between property markets and financial soundness, as well as to IMF surveillance. The institutional arrangements for the compilation and publication of the RPPI should be clarified. The mission recommended using the time dummy hedonic method with a four-quarter window length to compile quality-adjusted indices. The experimental indices for apartments developed during the mission—comprising six regional sub-indices, one index for Yerevan and one national index—were compared with a stratified median approach. The resulting hedonic indices contained less volatility; however, they exhibited a similar trend. Stability checks on the estimated shadow prices for each rolling window and each stratum were performed. Overall, the estimated coefficients have plausible signs and are reasonably stable over time.
Keywords:
Economic and financial statistics; property price statistics; residential property; price index; data collection; stratification; hedonic regression.; CCRA dataset; property price index Statistics mission; report on Residential Property Price Index; transactions data; property transaction; Housing; Land prices; Export fluctuations; Price indexes
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper analyses Republic of Armenia’s First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Armenia’s economic activity was very strong in 2022, with real gross domestic product growing at 12.6 percent, driven by robust consumption and external demand. Growth is projected to be at 5.5 percent in 2023. The SBA, which the Armenian authorities are treating as precautionary, aims to ensure policy continuity, advance structural reforms, and maintain macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal stability. The program is broadly on track. All end-December quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets were met, and good progress was made toward the completion of structural benchmarks. The end-March structural benchmark requiring the adoption of a decree clarifying the mandate, reporting, transparency, and viability requirements for the Armenian National Interests Fund was completed as a prior action for the review. The economic outlook for 2023 is generally positive, although risks remain substantial.