The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that The Andorra economy is showing resilience and is growing slightly above its long-term potential despite external headwinds. Over the medium-term, the economy is projected to slow to its lower long-term potential level estimated at 1.5 percent, comparable to average growth in the euro area. Risks to the outlook are balanced and the economy has solid macroeconomic buffers, but there are concerns about emerging structural bottlenecks, such as the lack of affordable housing, labor shortages, and vulnerability to climate change. After a strong growth rebound, structural reforms can raise potential growth and address emerging fault lines. The authorities should maintain tight fiscal policy as long as growth remains close to potential and price pressures are persistent. However, there is fiscal space for higher public investment to support potential growth and mitigate structural bottlenecks. Pension system reform is overdue to secure its long-term sustainability. Ambitious structural reforms to diversify the economy and address emerging bottlenecks are key. These include removing remaining constraints on investment, improving housing affordability, retaining talent, and fostering digitalization and economic efficiency.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on housing affordability in Andorra. This paper shows a granular analysis of housing affordability, exploiting microdata from the Survey of Living Conditions, to identify the groups that are most affected and better inform and target housing policies. Evidence that affordability is lower for renters and that Andorra is a renter-dominated real estate market combines to create a housing affordability issue. Low-income and low-skilled workers are disproportionally affected. This study analyzes the evolution and characteristics of housing demand and supply dynamics in the country, which indicates a supply and demand mismatch in the affordable segment of the Andorran housing market as well as insufficient fluidity, which exacerbates the shortage of short-term rentals and complicates the hiring of foreign workers. A multipronged policy approach is needed, and a careful balance is needed to minimize market distortions while increasing the stock of housing in the medium-term.
The Andorran economy is recovering strongly from the pandemic, supported by a rebound in tourism, retail trade, construction, and professional services. Real GDP is expected to reach pre-crisis levels in the second half of 2022. While the unemployment rate is amongst the lowest in Europe and continues to decline, pockets of vulnerability remain. Notwithstanding significant policy buffers, there are still substantial downside risks, notably the impact in Europe of the war in Ukraine, higher than expected inflation, and a resurgence of infection rates.
Andorra, the IMF’s newest member since October 2020, participated in its first Article IV consultation with a commitment to further enhance transparency. Tourism and banking-related services dominate economic activity in the euroized economy. The country enjoys long-standing political stability, a good track-record of fiscal discipline, a gender-balanced work force, and internationally competitive ski resorts. The authorities are managing the pandemic well with universal testing and expanded hospital capacity that kept fatality rates very low despite high case-loads. The testing strategy helped Andorra implement more targeted internal restrictions than in neighboring countries. At the same time, emergency fiscal measures stabilized real incomes and supported firms.
This paper discusses key findings of the assessment of Financial Sector Supervision and Regulation in Andorra. The assessment reveals that bank supervision in Andorra is broadly sound and has improved since the 2002 assessment. Institut Nacional Andorrà de Finances’ (INAF) new charter strengthened its independence and remedial powers. But these could be further strengthened by empowering it to impose all types of sanctions. Developing INAF’s onsite supervisory capacity and clarifying its requests to external auditors will be important for the bank and nonbank financial sectors.