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Books and Analytical Papers > IMF Staff Country Reports

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
中华人民共和国: 部分问题
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
部分问题
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
中华人民共和国: 2024 年第四条磋商—新闻发布稿；工作人员报告；工作人 员声明以及中国执行董事陈述
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
虽然房地产行业持续疲软，但中国经济仍保持了韧性，2023年GDP增速为5.2%，2024年上半年同比增速为5%。经济增长主要受到了强劲公共投资和新冠疫情后私人消费复苏的推动，而净出口也在近期起到了提振作用。然而，在经济持续疲软的情况下，最近几个季度的通胀低迷。 展望未来，预计经济增速将大致符合中国政府2024年的目标，而随着产出缺口缩小以及大宗商品价格下跌的影响减弱，预计通胀将逐渐回升。从中期来看，由于生产率增长疲软和老龄化的不利影响，预计经济增速将逐渐下降，到2029年降至3.3%左右。
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
中华人民共和国: 部分问题
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
部分问题
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People's Republic of China: Staff Report for the 2023 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
China has enjoyed decades of impressive growth, which has significantly improved living standards and largely eradicated extreme poverty. The growth has, however, been accompanied by widening imbalances and rising vulnerabilities, as excessive investment in infrastructure and housing has resulted in rising debt levels among property developers, local governments (LG), and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The authorities have proactively sought to contain developer leverage. This has contributed to a significant, but needed, adjustment in the property market that continues to weigh on economic activity, including through its impact on LG finances. Amid these structural challenges, the authorities have appropriately announced their goal to transition to high quality growth while tackling risks from the property sector and LG debt.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Following an impressive recovery from the initial impact of the pandemic, China’s growth has slowed significantly in 2022. It remains under pressure as more transmissible variants have led to recurring outbreaks that have dampened mobility, the real estate crisis remains unresolved, and global demand has slowed. Macroeconomic policies have been eased appropriately, but their effectiveness has been diminished by a focus on enterprises and increasingly less effective traditional infrastructure investment rather than support to households. The pandemic and its impacts have also been a setback to economic rebalancing toward private consumption and to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A slowdown in growth-enhancing reforms against the backdrop of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation pressures stand in the way of a much-needed lift to productivity growth, weighing on China’s medium-term growth potential.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy shock; guidance policy; productivity gap; LG bond issuance; financing arrangement; leveraged firm
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Chinese economy continues its fast recovery from the health and economic crisis as a strong containment effort and macroeconomic and financial policy support have mitigated the crisis impact and helped the economy rebound. However, growth is still unbalanced as the recovery has relied heavily on public support while private consumption is lagging. Rising financial vulnerabilities and the increasingly challenging external environment pose risks to the outlook. Important reforms have progressed despite the crisis, but unevenly across key areas.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government-managed funds; core inflation; financial support; interest rate; micro enterprise; zombie firm