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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
Mr. Krishna Srinivasan, Ms. Inci Ötker, Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan, and Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne

increase. Nonetheless, some Caribbean destinations might see some temporary decline in U.S. arrivals (as is shown next). Table 4.1 suggests that part of Cuba’s gain in U.S. tourism would be at the expense of other destinations (the ones with red cells in the U.S. column), but some Canadian and European tourists who currently visit Cuba could decide to visit other countries in the region once prices in Cuba start rising (countries with green cells in the Canada and U.K. columns). Interestingly, Miami could benefit from Canadian and U.K. visitors switching away from Cuba

Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

visit Cuba could decide to visit other countries in the region once the US tourists start to come into Cuba pushing prices up (countries with green cells in the Canada and UK columns). Interestingly, the models indicate that Miami could benefit from Canadian and UK visitors leaving Cuba as it is the closest Caribbean destination to both source countries and has close cultural and historical ties. One could argue that the US travel restrictions to Cuba have in some ways punished the Miami tourism industry by making Cuba artificially cheap for Canadian tourists which