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Hibah Khan, Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Frederico Lima, and Alexandre Sollaci
Quick vaccine rollouts are crucial for a strong economic recovery, but vaccine hesitancy could prolong the pandemic and the need for social distancing and lockdowns. We use individual-level data from nationally representative surveys developed by YouGov and Imperial College London to empirically examine the determinants of vaccine hesitancy across 17 countries and over time. Vaccine demand depends on demographic features such as age and gender, but also on perceptions about the severity of COVID-19 and side effects of the vaccine, vaccine access, compliance with protective behaviors, overall trust in government, and how information is shared with peers. We then introduce vaccine hesitancy into an extended SIR model to assess its impact on pandemic dynamics. We find that hesitancy can increase COVID-19 infections and deaths significantly if it slows down vaccine rollouts, but has a smaller impact if all willing adults can be immunized rapidly.
Hibah Khan, Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Frederico Lima, and Alexandre Sollaci

1. Introduction Our best hope in the fight against COVID-19 and the global economic recovery rests on widespread immunization. So far, vaccine rollouts in many parts of the world have been beset by supply constraints and limited vaccine availability. Yet, even when these issues are resolved, insufficient vaccine demand could still pose a serious challenge. Vaccine hesitancy and refusal could mean that not enough people in a community are immunized above levels required for herd immunity—a threshold that remains an active area of research but that would

Hibah Khan, Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Frederico Lima, and Alexandre Sollaci

Copyright Page © 2021 International Monetary Fund WP/21/130 IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19 1 Prepared by Era Dabla-Norris, Hibah Khan, Frederico Lima, and Alexandre Sollaci Authorized for distribution by Era Dabla-Norris May 2021 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate . The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not

International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

vaccination rates. Data at the subnational level reveal another problem—uneven distribution of vaccine coverage. As seen in some advanced economies, once the near term supply challenge is addressed, demand and vaccine hesitancy may become the next big obstacle for developing countries. FD ANDREW STANLEY is on the staff of Finance & Development . A tale of three worlds Sources : CoWIN; IMF Staff Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic; Our World in Data; and IMF staff calculations. Note : Country borders do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position