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Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Arina Viseth, and Mustafa Yenice

there is no consensus on the strength of the brain gain effects. For instance, Schiff (2005) suggests that positive impacts of skilled emigration are greatly exaggerated. In particular, the author shows that both the size of the human capital gain, as well as the impact on the return to education, are smaller than those implied by the brain gain literature. More specifically, when there is pooled unskilled and skilled migration, the return to education is reduced, as unskilled migration tends to actually reduce the expected return to education. Another channel that

International Monetary Fund

Front Matter Page Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department Authorized for distribution by William E. Alexander Contents Summary I. Introduction II. The Formulation and the Basic Analysis A. Skill-Independent Wages in Ruralia B. Skill-Dependent Wages in Both Countries C. Increasing but Non-Linear Wages in One Country III. Conclusion References Figures 1. Skill-Independent Wages in Ruralia 2. Level Dependent Wages in Urbania 3. Skill-Dependent Wages in Both Countries 4. The Case of Unskilled Migration 5. Non-Linear Wage

International Monetary Fund
We examine the issue of technical assistance versus brain drain repatriation as alternative strategies for transferring scarce skills to a skill-poor economy. Technical assistance relies mainly on expatriate skills and labor from the host country, while brain drain repatriation seeks to effect a return of skills that might have been lost in migration. We show that, even in the simplest setting with imperfect information, a surprisingly rich menu of responses is obtained.
Efraim Sadka and Assaf Razin
Migrants, being relatively low earners, are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. However, this paper uses a dynamic model to show that because of migrants’ positive influence on the pension system, which is an important pillar of any welfare state, migration could be beneficial to all income (high and low) and age (old and young) groups.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Belarus examines wage setting, the role of wage targets, as well as wage dynamics, and the relationship with productivity. It finds that wage targets set by the government appear to be the key driver of rapid wage growth. Little regional and sectoral variation also suggests close adherence to official targets and a high degree of government control. Wage growth has outpaced productivity growth as the targets do not take productivity developments into account. In order to resolve these issues, in the short run, the authorities should aim for wage restraint to contain domestic demand and improve competitiveness. More generally, wage targets should be phased out to make way for more market-oriented wage-setting mechanisms. This should be complemented by deeper structural reform, dismantlement of the wider system of mandatory economic targets. wage targets should be eliminated as they restrict the flexibility to respond to market conditions. However, reform of wage setting will not be enough on its own and should be complemented by further structural measures to remove other distortions, such as direct and indirect subsidies to state-owned enterprises, which allow them to generate profit while at the same time maintaining excess employment.
Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Arina Viseth, and Mustafa Yenice
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
Mr. Rodney Ramcharan
In 1910, 12 percent of American 14-17 year olds were enrolled in high school; by 1930, enrollment had increased to 50 percent; enrollment in Britain was 12 percent in 1950. This paper argues that by increasing the skill premium, the massive inflows of European unskilled immigrants at the turn of the twentieth century engendered America's sharp rise in human capital investment. The increased enrollments raised the supply of schools, leading to continued schooling investment. Cross section evidence and a VAR analysis of the time series data support the hypothesized role of immigration in generating the high school movement.
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan, Lone Engbo Christiansen, Allan Dizioli, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, Ms. Anna Ilyina, Mr. Gil Mehrez, Mr. Haonan Qu, Ms. Faezeh Raei, Ms. Alaina P Rhee, and Ms. Daria V Zakharova
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Jorge Alvarez, Mr. Marco Arena, Alain Brousseau, Mr. Hamid Faruqee, Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, Gerardo Peraza, and Juan Yepez
As a new migration crisis is unfolding in Europe because of the war in Ukraine, the purpose of this paper is to also highlight the ongoing migration crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) due to Venezuela’s economic collapse. The stock of Venezuelan migrants reached 5 million in 2019, most of which had settled in other LAC countries. Following a temporary halt during the pandemic, migration from Venezuela has resumed, with the stock of migrants reaching 6.1 million in 2021. These migration flows are expected to continue in the coming years, which can strain public services and labor markets in the recipient economies in LAC. This Departmental Paper focuses on migration spillovers from the Venezuelan economic and social crisis. It sheds light on how migration can raise GDP growth and affect fiscal and external positions in host countries. It also discusses policy options, including greater support for education and integration into the workforce, which could help migrants find jobs to match their skills and help raise growth prospects in recipient countries.
Efraim Sadka and Assaf Razin

* ( 1 − e ) d G + q [ 1 − G ( e * ) + m ] } − b 1 ( 1 + m ) ( 1 + δ ) ( 1 + n ) . ( 10 ) G. Output In this paper, we wish to focus our analysis primarily on the attitude of the native-born population toward unskilled migration in an economy with a PAYG-DB, distributive pension system. For this reason, we abstract from the effect that migration can have on relative wages and concentrate