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Mr. Sakai Ando, Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan, Bertrand Gruss, Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert, La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nir Klein, Ana Lariau, Lucy Qian Liu, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Mr. Haonan Qu, and Alexandra Solovyeva
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by far the largest shock to European economies since World War II. Yet, astonishingly, the EU unemployment rate had already declined to its pre-crisis level by 2021Q3, and in some countries the labor force participation rate is at a record high. This paper documents that the widespread use of job retention schemes has played an essential role in mitigating the pandemic’s impact on labor markets and thereby facilitating the restart of European economies after the initial lockdowns.
International Monetary Fund

.4 percent, reflecting slightly higher expansion of exports, personal consumption and government spending. On this basis, we have revised our 2009 GDP growth projection to -4.0 percent from -4.2 percent. GDP growth for both 2010 and 2011 is now projected at 1.3 percent (compared to earlier projections of 0.7 percent and 0.6 percent respectively), owing mainly to a more sanguine outlook for the larger European economies. At the same time, the unemployment rate forecast for 2010 has been lowered from 6½ percent to 5 percent (Eurostat definition). 3. The authorities

Mr. Sakai Ando, Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan, Bertrand Gruss, Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert, La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nir Klein, Ana Lariau, Lucy Qian Liu, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Mr. Haonan Qu, and Alexandra Solovyeva

. Estimation Results: Dynamic Betas Figure 13. Sectoral Okun’s Law, Drivers, and Divergence during the COVID-19 Crisis Figure 14. Distribution of JRS Use Across Sectors in Selected Countries Figure 15. Unemployment Rate Forecasts Based on the “Shadow Unemployment” Approach Figure 16. Potential Labor Reallocation by Sector and Occupation in the Long Term Figure 17. Sectoral and Occupational Labor Reallocation: Baseline versus Post-Pandemic TABLES Table 1. Institutional Factors Influencing the Responsiveness of Changes in Unemployment to Changes in Output Table

Mr. John C Bluedorn and Mr. Daniel Leigh

. On average, following a 1 percent surprise increase in employment, forecasters adjust the five-year-ahead level forecast of employment up by more than one-for-one (by 1.6 percent) in the same direction. Forecasters thus do not typically expect employment expansions to be followed by slower growth and a return to (or even toward) the previous trend. Forecasters also revise up their five-year-ahead labor force participation forecast up by 1.1 percent and reduce their five-year-ahead unemployment rate forecast by 0.4 percentage point. The 90 percent confidence

Mr. John C Bluedorn and Mr. Daniel Leigh
We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.
Mr. Ralph Chami

other than growth rates (including potential growth rates) that is systematically affecting the rate of employment growth. Such a phenomenon may be easy to explain with sufficient country experience. Trends can have big implications for employment and unemployment rate forecasts as well as for the economic growth rates required to meet targets. When employment is affected by a trend, the elasticity by itself can only be used to conduct ceteris paribus analysis, e.g., “What will the downward revision to GDP growth do to unemployment rates?” or “How much faster do I

Ms. Mitali Das

its 2005–10 growth rate (3.9 percent) until 2017, and remain at its 2017 level thereafter. Unemployment rate . Forecasts are from the WEO through 2017. From 2017 onward, the unemployment rate is assumed to stay fixed at the 2017 rate (4 percent). Partner GDP growth . Real GDP projections of China’s eight largest trading partners, weighted by export shares, are obtained from the WEO and Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). 6 Real growth rates after 2017 are assumed to stay at the 2017 level; export shares are fixed at their 2011 level. Under these assumptions

Mr. Ralph Chami
This note is a reference guide for the unemployment template, an econometric tool that allows researchers to analyze and project labor market indicators for any country with sufficient data coverage. Section I explains the motivation behind designing a new surveillance tool to study labor markets, and summarizes the key features of the template. Section II details the data inputs needed and their sources. Section III describes the methods used to estimate the employment-growth elasticity, a measure of the extent to which employment responds to output. Section IV outlines the medium-term outlook table and projection charts created by the template once the inputs are customized to generate an appropriate elasticity. Finally, Section V presents a discussion on how to interpret the results produced by the template, and of the issues that arise from projecting labor market indicators.
Ms. Mitali Das and Mr. Papa M N'Diaye

derived from nonlinear regression of the time series of labor force on a constant, the stock of working age population and its square ( Figure 5 ). 7 Figure 5. Labor Force, Actual and Regression Estimates (In millions) TFP . The TFP level is assumed to increase annually at the average of its 2005–10 growth rate (3.9 percent) until 2017, and remain at its 2017 level thereafter. Unemployment rate : Forecasts are from the WEO through 2017. From 2017 onwards, the unemployment rate is assumed to stay fixed at the 2017 rate (4 percent). Partner GDP growth