Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

  • "tropical cyclone damage" x
Clear All
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents a proposal for the creation of savings funds (SF) for rehabilitation and reconstruction after natural disasters (ND) in Dominica. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to calibrate the size of the SF, based on the distribution of ND fiscal shocks estimated from an empirical fiscal model. ND shocks are identified by controlling for other major sources of shock affecting the cyclical fluctuations of output, and government revenue and expenditure, and by calibrating the probability of ND consistent with their historical frequency. It is concluded that under the parameter calibrations proposed, the SF would be financially sustainable with a low probability of depletion.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
This paper studies the economic costs of hurricanes in the Caribbean by constructing a novel dataset that combines a detailed record of tropical cyclones’ characteristics with reported damages. I estimate the relation between hurricane wind speeds and damages in the Caribbean; finding that the elasticity of damages to GDP ratio with respect to maximum wind speeds is three in the case of landfalls. The data show that hurricane damages are considerably underreported, particularly in the 1950s and 1960s, with average damages potentially being three times as large as the reported average of 1.6 percent of GDP per year. I document and show that hurricanes that do not make landfall also have considerable negative impacts on the Caribbean economies. Finally, I estimate that the average annual hurricane damages in the Caribbean will increase between 22 and 77 percent by the year 2100, in a global warming scenario of high CO2 concentrations and high global temperatures.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This Selected Issues paper presents a proposal for the creation of savings funds (SF) for rehabilitation and reconstruction after natural disasters (ND) in Dominica. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to calibrate the size of the SF, based on the distribution of ND fiscal shocks estimated from an empirical fiscal model. ND shocks are identified by controlling for other major sources of shock affecting the cyclical fluctuations of output, and government revenue and expenditure, and by calibrating the probability of ND consistent with their historical frequency. It is concluded that under the parameter calibrations proposed, the SF would be financially sustainable with a low probability of depletion.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This Selected Issues paper presents a proposal for the creation of savings funds (SF) for rehabilitation and reconstruction after natural disasters (ND) in Dominica. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to calibrate the size of the SF, based on the distribution of ND fiscal shocks estimated from an empirical fiscal model. ND shocks are identified by controlling for other major sources of shock affecting the cyclical fluctuations of output, and government revenue and expenditure, and by calibrating the probability of ND consistent with their historical frequency. It is concluded that under the parameter calibrations proposed, the SF would be financially sustainable with a low probability of depletion.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This Selected Issues paper presents a proposal for the creation of savings funds (SF) for rehabilitation and reconstruction after natural disasters (ND) in Dominica. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to calibrate the size of the SF, based on the distribution of ND fiscal shocks estimated from an empirical fiscal model. ND shocks are identified by controlling for other major sources of shock affecting the cyclical fluctuations of output, and government revenue and expenditure, and by calibrating the probability of ND consistent with their historical frequency. It is concluded that under the parameter calibrations proposed, the SF would be financially sustainable with a low probability of depletion.

Mr. Matthieu Bellon and Emanuele Massetti

. Mendelsohn , Robert . 2000 . “ Efficient Adaptation to Climate Change .” Climatic Change 45 ( 3–4 ): 583 – 600 . Mendelsohn , Robert . 2012 . “ Development and Climate Adaptation .” In Climate Change and Common Sense: Essays in Honour of Tom Schelling , edited by Robert W. Hahn and Alistair Ulph , 245 . Oxford : Oxford University Press . Mendelsohn , Robert , Kerry Emanuel , Shun Chonabayashi , and Laura Bakkensen . 2012 . “ The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical Cyclone Damage .” Nature Climate Change 2 ( 3

International Monetary Fund

Local and Foreign Currency “Modelled” Hurricane damage • 6 month deferral if modelled loss is greater than USD 15mn. less than USD 30mn • 12 month deferral if modelled loss is greater than USD 30mn Can be triggered a maximum of 3 times Barbados (2018) – Natural disaster clause in domestic-currency long-term bonds 0% nominal / 43% NPV Local currency 15–35 “Modelled” natural disaster (earthquake, rainfall tropical cyclone) damage • 24 month deferral if modelled loss is greater than USD 5 mn Can be triggered a maximum of 3 times

Mr. Matthieu Bellon and Emanuele Massetti
Adaptation to climate change is a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. Policymakers face the challenge of facilitating this transition. This Note argues that adaptation to climate change should be part of a holistic development strategy involving both private and public sector responses. Governments can prioritize public investment in adaptation programs with positive externalities, address market imperfections and policies that make private adaptation inefficient, and mobilize revenues for, and distribute the benefits of, adaptation. Although the choice of what should be done and at what cost ultimately depends on each society’s preferences, economic theory provides a useful framework to maximize the impact of public spending. Cost-benefit analysis, complemented by the analysis of distributional effects, can be used to prioritize adaptation programs as well as all other development programs to promote an efficient and just transition to a changed climate. While compensations may be needed to offset damages that are either impossible or too expensive to abate, subsidies for adaptation require careful calibration to prevent excessive risk taking.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

Review , Vol. 117 , pp. 2248 – 2259 . Mendelsohn , Robert ; Emanuel , Kerry ; Chonabayashi , Shun ; and Bakkensen , Laura ( 2012 ). “ The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical Cyclone Damage ”. Nature Climate Change , Vol. 2 , pp. 205 – 209 . Narita , Daiju ; Tol , Richard ; and Anthoff , David ( 2009 ). “ Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: an application of FUND ”. Climate Research , Vol. 39 , pp. 87 – 97 . NOAA ( 1989 ). “ Preliminary Report: Hurricane Dean