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Mr. Nicolas Arregui and Ian W.H. Parry

commercial players, with centralized UK regulatory tools. Progress in sectors other than power has effectively stalled in the last five years. For instance, transport sector emissions (which accounts for about 27 percent of total GHGs) has made virtually no contribution to reducing GHG emissions since 1990 and has indeed increased by about five percent since 2013. Figure 1. UK Greenhouse Emissions Source: BEIS, OECD, and IMF staff calculations. Note: ‘Agriculture” includes land use, land-use change, and forestry. ‘Other’ is the sum of public and waste

Mr. Nicolas Arregui and Ian W.H. Parry
The UK has pledged to cut greenhouse gases 57 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, to be emisisons neutral by 2050, and to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. Much progress has been made, but fully achieving these ambitious objectives with the current policy framework will be challenging as it involves multiple and overlapping pricing schemes with significant sectoral differences in carbon prices and may be difficult to scale up on political and administrative grounds. This paper discusses an alternative framework consisting of: (i) a comprehensive carbon price (ideally a tax) rising to at least £60 (US $75) per ton by 2030; and (ii) reinforcing sectoral policies, most importantly feebates for the transport, industrial, and building sectors. This framework could implement mitigation targets, while limiting burdens on households and firms to enhance acceptability, and still raise revenues of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2030. The UK could also leverage its COP26 presidency to promote dialogue on international carbon price floors and pricing of international transport emissions.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

2. Complementary Policies 3. Environmental Taxation 4. Effective Carbon Pricing 5. Carbon Pricing Scenario 6. Transport Sector Emissions 7. Fuel Duties 8. Distributional Implications of Higher Fuel Taxes 9. Acquisition Taxes 10. Circulation Tax 11. Road Transport Fiscal Revenues 12. Efficiency Standards 13. Electromobility Adoption 14. Purchase Subsidies Distributional Considerations 15. Population Density, Air Pollution, and Public Transportation 16. Transport Modes 17. Residential Emissions 18. Housing Stock Characteristics 19

Mr. Nicolas Arregui, Ms. Ruo Chen, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, Jan-Martin Frie, Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia, Ms. Dora M Iakova, Andreas Jobst, Louise Rabier, Mr. James Roaf, Ms. Anna Shabunina, and Mr. Sebastian Weber

Coal Mining Sector by 2030 Figure 17. Transport Sector Emissions and Drivers Figure 18. Car Efficiency and Electrifications Potential Figure 19. New Car Efficiency Figure 20. Fuel Taxation and Efficient Prices Figure 21. Real Growth in Fuel Duties, December 2018 versus January 2011 Figure 22. Acquisition Taxes Figure 23. Zero- and Low-Emission Car Adoption Figure 24. Transport Modes Figure 25. Distributional and Revenue Challenges Figure 26. Aviation Emissions and Drivers Figure 27. EU+UK: Final Energy Consumption by Households, 2017 Figure 28

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

to Estonia’s old residential buildings stock, with about 90 percent of buildings constructed before 1990 (as of 2014). Figure 6. Building Energy Efficiency and Building Construction Year D. Climate Policies in the Transport and Building Sectors Key Policies in the Transport Sector 11. Estonia’s policies to reduce transport sector emissions are underpinned by the National Development Plan for the Energy Sector 2030 and the Transport and Mobility 2021– 2035 plan. Policies in the National Development Plan for the Energy Sector 2030 include (i) car

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

—alongside low GDP growth— contributed to faster reduction in carbon emissions in some sectors relative to peers . Italy’s high fuel taxes helped contain transport sector emissions to a greater extent than other EU countries. However, the low price elasticity of gasoline consumption, coupled with remaining subsidies (including for diesel, maritime and aviation sectors) has limited progress towards targets in Italy. Italy’s pioneering green policies in the manufacturing sector are likely to have contributed, alongside the sector’s subdued activity and its changing composition

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

reduce GHG emissions by over 10 percent relative to 2019. Nonetheless, this decline is expected to be temporary and reverse by 2021 leaving the emissions trajectory still far from what would be required to meet its 2030 target. 4 The national climate plan (NECP) envisages a ‘With Additional Measures’ (WAM) scenario, comprising policies aimed at achieving substantial reductions in transport sector emissions to bring Austria closer to its 2030 target. 4. Austria’s crisis recovery package includes additional expenditure-based measures that could help achieve the