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Mr. Johannes Mueller, Irene Yackovlev, and Hans Weisfeld
Most WAEMU countries are likely to see economic growth deteriorate over the next two years as a result of the global economic crisis, and some WAEMU countries will be more severely affected by the crisis than others. This could have a detrimental effect on efforts to reduce poverty. Deteriorating remittances and commodity export prices are projected to negatively affect the WAEMU countries’ external current account deficit and reserves, although the impact should be cushioned by positive terms-of-trade shocks, such as declining import prices for food and fuel products. These developments should also help lower inflation pressures, bringing WAEMU inflation closer to its historical level of about 2 percent by 2010.
Mr. Johannes Mueller, Irene Yackovlev, and Hans Weisfeld

trade with Nigeria— needs to be carefully monitored. 27. Trade financing developments need to be tracked . Although limited anecdotal evidence suggests there has not been any noticeable increase in the cost of trade financing, the authorities should assess whether the recent slowdown in import and export growth is in any way related to a drying up of trade credit, such as prepaid letters of credit. If such developments are noticed early enough, a policy response could be formulated. 8 28. Finally, institutional coordination should be enhanced: There is a

Mika Saito, Christian Henn, Rob Gregory, and Mr. Brad J. McDonald

United States,” IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 44 ( March ), pp. 132 — 44 . Malouche , M. , 2009 “Trade and Trade Finance Developments in 14 Developing Countries Post September 2008: A World Bank Survey,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5138 , Washington . McKibbin , W. , and A. Stoeckel , 2009 , “The Potential Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on World Trade,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5134 , Washington . Pisani-Ferry , J. , and Indira Santos , 2009 , “Reshaping the Global Economy,” Finance and

Dimitre Milkov, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, and Mr. John Wakeman-Linn

resolve problem banks once vulnerabilities have been identified. 30. Trade financing developments need to be followed . Although there has been no reported significant increase in the cost of trade financing, the authorities should be alert for any decline in the availability of trade credits, such as regarding pre-paid letters of credit. 31. In addition, inter-institutional coordination should be enhanced . In view of the systemic importance of foreign-owned banks, an improved exchange of information and coordination between the BEAC authorities and home

Mr. Stephen Tokarick

Conference of Agricultural Economists , Gower . World Bank , 2004 , “ Trade Patterns and Policies: Doha Options To Promote Development ,” Global Economic Prospects ( Washington : World Bank ) pp. 76 – 78 . Yeats , Alexander , Amjadi Azita , Ulrich Reincke , and Francis Ng , 1996 , “ What Caused Sub- Saharan Africa’s Marginalization in World Trade? ” Finance & Development , Vol. 33 ( December ), pp. 38 – 41 1 Prepared by Stephen Tokarick, Senior Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund. Carlos Ludena, Purdue

Mr. Stephen Tokarick
This paper points out that while many developing countries seek to increase their export earnings, they have not embraced fully the notion that their own pattern of import protection hurts their export performance. The paper quantifies the extent to which import protection acts as a tax on a country's export sector and finds that for many developing countries, the magnitude of the implicit tax is substantial-about 12 percent, on average, for the countries studied. The paper also illustrates the effects of various tariff-cutting scenarios in the Doha Round on export incentives and concludes that, in general, developing countries could increase their export earnings by reducing their own import tariffs, but countries must be careful about how these tariff reductions are achieved. For example, tariff-cutting schemes that exempt certain sectors could actually be harmful.
International Monetary Fund

). Cordelia , Tito , and Isabel Grilo , 1998 , “ Patterns of Trade and Oligopoly Equilibria: an Example, ” Review of International Econ