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Mariya Brussevich, Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, and Pauline Wibaux
This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying factors contributing to French firms’ heterogeneous adjustment paths. Early in the pandemic, firms mainly responded to global lockdowns and spread of the virus by reducing trade volumes (intensive margin) as opposed to exiting from import and export markets (ex-tensive margin). However, adjustment along the extensive margin played a more important role in trade with developing countries. It is shown that the impact of lockdowns was stronger for final consumer goods and the trade recovery was predominantly demand-driven. More automated, inventory-intensive, older, and medium-sized firms were more insulated from the shock, whereas firms’ reliance on air transportation for shipping goods amplified the shock. Trade bans and promotion measures implemented by governments in response to the pandemic had little impact on aggregate trade flows.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

scale economies. To forestall such an outcome and reduce the associated cybersecurity vulnerabilities, the leader in a certain technology may seek to ban its exports. Imposing trade bans could lead to retaliation. An import ban might help a technological power gain an advantage in global markets, although a competitor might also reciprocate the ban, leading to a worse outcome for both countries. In many cases, the anticipation of such reciprocity can act as a powerful deterrent. Unlike import bans, however, export bans cannot be deterred with retaliation via trade

Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia and Rishi Goyal

policies even in a repeated setup. Trade bans can be optimal for each country individually, given the monopoly rents and cyber security vulnerabilities. But they effectively promote technological and economic decoupling, slowing technological diffusion, and thus are deleterious for global welfare (see also IMF, 2018 ). As highlighted in the seminal work of Romer (1986 , 1990 ), the sharing of ideas and technology has characteristics of a global public good. Technological diffusion, while protecting intellectual property rights, is advisable and a common market

Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia and Rishi Goyal

outcome and reduce the associated cybersecurity vulnerabilities, the leader in a certain technology may seek to ban its exports. Imposing trade bans could lead to retaliation. An import ban might help a technological power gain an advantage in global markets, although a competitor might also reciprocate the ban, leading to a worse outcome for both countries. In many cases, the anticipation of such reciprocity can act as a powerful deterrent. Unlike import bans, export bans cannot be deterred with retaliation via trade policies. A technology leader would impose them

Mr. Peter P Uimonen

measure was not primarily aimed at making domestic regulations effective. Trade provisions of selected international environmental agreements Agreements Trade-related provisions Convention on International Trade In Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) Entry into Force January 1975 Objectives . Protection of fauna and flora from overexptoitation and extinction. CITES Appendix I lists species threatened with extinction and obligates parties to almost complete trade ban. Appendix II lists species which may become threatened and