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Ms. Shari Boyce, Mr. Sergei Dodzin, Mr. Xuefei Bai, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Rosanne Heller

-Leste. Tourism-intensive small states: Fiji, Maldives, Palau, Samoa, and Vanuatu. Others: Fishing license-dependent (Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Tuvalu) and Tonga. Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff estimates. Fiscal Performance Tax reforms led to strong tax revenue performance in some tourism-intensive economies (Maldives and Samoa), while nontax receipts—mainly fishing license fees—surged in Kiribati and Tuvalu (see special topic). The underlying fiscal position in commodity exporters and in countries dependent on fishing license fees

Vivian Parlak, Mr. Gonzalo Salinas, and Mr. Mauricio Vargas
We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.
Vivian Parlak, Mr. Gonzalo Salinas, and Mr. Mauricio Vargas

the Caribbean. 3 The point estimate of the elasticity coefficient implies that a 10 percent increase in real oil prices reduces real GDP growth by about 0.5 percentage points over five years in tourism-intensive small states like the ECCU. 4 Roopnarine and others (2019) estimate the effect of oil price changes on oil-exporting Trinidad and Tobago finding an expected significant positive impact on its GDP, but this is not a good reference for oil-importing ECCU countries. Roach (2014) analyzes oil price shock effects on Jamaica and finds that increases in oil