financing to sustain high and inclusive growth and poverty reduction as well as facilitate an effective response to the COVID-19 virus outbreak. The program will also strengthen public financial management, domestic revenue mobilization, and safeguard debt sustainability.
II. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook
4. Overall economic performance has remained robust, with GDP growing at 6.5 percent in 2018, and 6 percent in 2019, despite a series of adverse shocks that affected the agriculture and tourismsectors. Growth has also been supported by expansion of
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
been supported by an expanding market share beyond the region, where EU shares in tourist arrivals has risen from an average share of around 7 percent in 2010–16 to 12 percent prior to the pandemic, coinciding with the expansion of low-cost European airlines to the region.
Sources: Central Bank of Jordan, Ministry of Tourism, Haver, and IMF staff calculations.
2. Tourismsectorgrowth provides an import source of employment . In 2019, the tourism sector directly contributed to the employment of approximately 54,000 people (4 percent of total employment
original target of fully implementing the SAFE by end-2006 was not met because agreement with a key donor and technical preparation took longer than expected.
I. Recent Developments
Economic activity in 2006 has been buoyant thanks to higher foreign direct investments in the oil and tourismsectors. Growth is expected to reach 8 percent in 2006, well above the 5.5 percent projection made at the time of the second review under PRGF. However, inflation has been higher than projected on account of various factors, including temporary food shortages, higher oil
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
term remains similar given the prospects of the tourismsector .
Growth and inflation . The COVID-19 shock will reverse what was expected to be a promising year for tourism with the opening of the new airport runway and several resorts. Pre-pandemic GDP growth in 2020 was projected at 7 percent, with the pandemic causing a -15.1 percentage point shock to 2020 growth. The tourism sector directly accounts for -11.7 percentage points of that revision. The spillovers into domestic economy are projected to contribute -3.4 percentage points because of lower tourist
growth and create jobs. Nonetheless, because of the disruptions in the manufacturing and
tourismsectors, growth is expected to remain subdued in FY 2013/14. The budget deficit will
remain elevated, unless the authorities move ahead quickly with their plans to reform subsidies
and implement other fiscal measures. Inflation is projected to rise further, reflecting persistent
supply-side bottlenecks and continued money expansion.
Risks. The main risk is that heightened political uncertainty and further escalation of violence
would reduce confidence and increase
Short-term outlook . The pledged financial support from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and UAE (about $ 12-15 billion) would help Egypt meet its financing needs during the next year or so. It has also created some fiscal space allowing the interim government to announce in August a fiscal stimulus package consisting of 1.2 percent of GDP in additional investment spending to support growth and create jobs. Nonetheless, because of the disruptions in the manufacturing and tourismsectors, growth is expected to remain subdued in FY 2013/14. The budget deficit will
, planned utility tariff adjustments, and public-sector wage adjustments in 2019, 2 would put pressure on both inflation and the external balance during 2018–19. Growth is projected to moderate from 5¼ percent in 2017 to 3½ percent during 2018–20, around the potential rate, due to the tight monetary policy stance, the moderation of tourismsectorgrowth compared with 2016–17, and the moratorium on large hotel construction projects. 3 The expected moderation in aggregate demand would help offset the adverse impact of higher international fuel prices on inflation and the
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
1. The St. Lucia economy grew steadily in recent years, driven by robust tourism exports . Growth has averaged 2.6 percent in 2017–19, compared to the historical average of 1.5 percent. Increased activity in hotel and food services have accounted for half of this growth. The robust tourismsectorgrowth reflected favorable external conditions, including strong growth in the United States (which account for nearly one half of St. Lucia’s stayover tourists). There are also large public infrastructure investments that are getting underway
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
from the impact of Cyclone Winston. The near-term growth outlook is favorable, supported by reconstruction activities, the normalization of agricultural production, and the robust performance of the tourismsector. Growth is projected to remain strong at around 3–3.5 percent over the medium term as the private sector compensates for the gradual withdrawal of policy support.
49. To maintain the growth momentum in the medium term, reforms should focus on improving the business environment to foster private sector development . Measures could include: re