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Cover IMF Working Papers
A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19
Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands
The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous variant scenario. This realization calls for a new strategy that manages both the uncertainty and the long-term risks of COVID-19. There are four key policy implications of such as strategy. First, we need to achieve equitable access beyond vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade the toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward COVID-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. Fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond COVID-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security. The international community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to the global economy, not just the development need of a particular country. Accordingly, it should allocate additional funding to fight pandemics and strengthen health systems both domestically and overseas. This will require about $15 billion in grants this year and $10 billion annually after that.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; systemic risks; economic crisis; toolkit approach; policy implication; pandemic financing; omicron scenario; risks of COVID-19; COVID-19; Communicable diseases; Health care; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

Balanced and Integrated Global Response (Policy Implication 3) V. A Unified Approach to Reduce Global Risks (Policy Implication 4) VI. Financing VII. Closing Thoughts VIII. References FIGURES 1. Pandemic Impact on World GDP 2. Over 100 countries are not on track to meet the mid-2022 vaccination target of 70% 3. Testing rates remain low and unequal worldwide 4. Illustration of a Comprehensive COVID-19 Toolkit Approach TABLES 1. Summary of the Central Pivot and its Implications 2. Four Possible Post-Omicron Scenarios and Priorities

Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Macroprudential and Microprudential Policies
Toward Cohabitation
Jacek Osinski, Katharine Seal, and Mr. Lex Hoogduin

should be shared between the two sets of authorities, subject to adequate protocols. Supervision should also monitor financial innovations developed by firms, which can be a source of developing systemic risk. C. Toolkits Approaches to address the overlap of the macroprudential and microprudential policy toolkits have differed across jurisdictions (see Annex II ). Two of the approaches used in advanced countries are (1) the allocation of all tools to the microprudential authority, with macroprudential input; and (2) the legal allocation of instruments to

Keywords:
SDN; policy action; Policy mandate; policy framework; macroprudential authority; policy debate; policy impasse; confusion in terms; capital relief; prudential authorities; conservation buffer; sound financial system
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19
Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

encounter highly virulent future variants. Figure 4: Illustration of a Comprehensive COVID-19 Toolkit Approach Source: Authors. IV. A Balanced and Integrated Global Response (Policy Implication 3) Even before the Omicron wave, many developing economies faced a trade-off between allocating scarce resources to COVID-19 vaccination campaigns and other pressing health priorities. After the Omicron wave, as seropositivity rates increase due to natural infection, several countries are considering deprioritizing vaccination—implying that the vaccination

Keywords:
IMF pandemic Proposal; health system; pandemic preparedness; preparedness partnership; immunization campaign; COVID-19; Communicable diseases; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Macroprudential and Microprudential Policies: Toward Cohabitation
Jacek Osinski, Katharine Seal, and Mr. Lex Hoogduin
Effective arrangements for micro and macroprudential policies to further overall financial stability are strongly desirable for all countries, emerging or advanced. Both policies complement each other, but there can also be potential areas of overlap and conflict, which can complicate this cooperation. Organizing their very close interactions can help contain these potential tensions. This note clarifies the essential features of macroprudential and microprudential policies and their interactions, and delineates their borderline. It proposes mechanisms for aligning both policies in the pursuit of financial stability by identifying those elements that are desirable for effective cooperation between them. The note provides general guidance. Actual arrangements will need take into account country-specific circumstances, reflecting the fact that that there is no “one size fits all.”
Keywords:
SDN; policy action; Policy mandate; policy framework; macroprudential authority; policy debate; policy impasse; macroprudential policy; microprudential policy; supervision; financial stability; financial cycle; capital buffer; authorities' policy action; condition market expectation; risk assessment; central bank; Systemic risk; Countercyclical capital buffers; Financial sector stability