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Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
The paper extends the work of Deaton (2021) by exploring the period of post-crisis recovery in 2021-2024. The paper documents per-capita income divergence during the period of post-shock recovery, with countries at the bottom of the income distribution falling significantly behind. Findings suggest that higher COVID-19 vaccination rates and targeted virus containment measures are associated with faster recovery in per-capita incomes in the medium term. Evidence on the effectiveness of economic support policies for reducing cross-country income inequality, including fiscal and monetary policies, is mixed especially in the case of developing countries.
Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou

econometric techniques to measure the contribution of various variables to the observed changes in per-capita incomes: (i) two model averaging techniques, including Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS); and (ii) a machine-learning technique—Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). We find that higher COVID-19 vaccination rates and targeted virus containment measures are associated with faster recovery in per-capita incomes in the post-shock recovery period. Evidence on the impact of the economic support policies, both

Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou

, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT : The paper extends the work of Deaton (2021) by exploring the period of post-crisis recovery in 2021–2024. The paper documents per-capita income divergence during the period of post-shock recovery, with countries at the bottom of the income distribution falling significantly behind. Findings suggest that higher COVID-19 vaccination rates and targeted virus containment measures are associated with faster recovery in per-capita incomes in the medium term. Evidence on the effectiveness of economic support policies for